WHY IS INDIA NEUTRAL IN THIS WAR?

 

 

The colonial hangover persists on either side of the Atlantic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent demonization of the Russian bear by the U.S. led world community is compelling countries unrelated to the war to take sides. While it would be wrong to use the word ‘unrelated’ in today’s interconnected and free market world, but one cannot deny that most of us in Asia are remotely related to this replay of cold war.

The American and European lobby would like us to believe that Russia is evil and the source of all the miseries in Ukraine. Why should Russia’s security interest be less important than American and NATO security interests? Why is it that putting up nuclear warheads 80 Km from the U.S coast in Cuba is an act of terror and taking NATO forces at the doorstep of Russia a noble act of providing security to Ukraine? The NATO could have avoided the war by declaring that they will never offer membership to Ukraine and threaten Russian security. Why did they not do so?

When the U.S and NATO created havoc in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan they went unpunished. If President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair were not labeled as war criminals when they inflicted a senseless war on the basis of fictitious WMDs in Iraq, how can they assign this label to Putin, who can see a real nuclear threat next door if Ukraine joins NATO?

Under these dubious circumstances why is India being asked to take sides - no, let me correct, why is India being asked to take the American side? The fact that the Ukrainians have been subjected to untold sufferings and their country has been bombed back to Stone Age is undoubtedly heartbreaking and unquestionably wrong, and India has criticized it in the U.N but who is to be blamed for this? Are those forces which were instigating Ukraine and still supplying it with arms any less responsible?

 

Double standards

Every country has a geography and a history which it cannot wish off. Strategic decisions have to be taken considering our place in world politics but without neglecting our geopolitical constrains. It is very easy for the western countries to point finger at us and give us lessons in ethics and humanity but when pointed out that they are themselves not exactly guilt free they find it hard to digest. So when Foreign Minister Mr. S. Jayshankar pointed out that India buys less oil from Russia annually than Europe does in one afternoon why is the reality not sinking in? And when Muslim appeasing senators in the U.S. Capitol and parliamentarians in the British Parliament talk about human right abuses on Muslims in India we too have similar concerns about how minorities suffer racial attacks in the U.S, U.K and Canada. Why is it that unruly farmers blocking roads of Delhi are innocent and deserve to be pampered and vaccine hesitant truckers paralyzing the Canadian capital Ottawa are criminals and deserve to be punished? Should we be discussing them in our parliament and embarrassing these governments or should we let the local governments deal with them the best they can?

 

Historically neutral

We have historically not taken sides in the cold war between the erstwhile superpowers, much to the displeasure of successive American Presidents. Our policy of non-alignment then has metamorphosed into multi-alignment now. We are friendly with all countries rich and poor, strong and weak if they do not export terror to our soil and try to forcefully encroach on our territory.

Since 1947, the US and Britain have followed a pro-Pakistan policy in South Asia. Islamabad remains a major non-NATO ally — which India is not. Throughout the 40-year-long Cold War, US foreign policy tilted in favour of Pakistan. Today Pakistan is an embarrassment for them – economically entangled in a Chinese debt trap, socially in turmoil as a safe haven for terrorists and politically a puppeteer’s dream for their all powerful Army, the same Army which lost half of its country in 1971! The Americans and the British threatened us with their maritime might during the 1971 war and it was the Soviet Navy’s presence in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea that dissuaded them from entering the theatre of action! Why should we be keen to abandon a trusted friend?

The difference in attitude of the American and the Russian side towards India even today is clear for all to see. Whereas the Russian foreign minister Sargay Lavrov said "We appreciate that India is taking this situation in the entirety of facts." and expressed his understanding of our deeply rooted public opinion that we are with neither Russia nor NATO but with the "side of peace" the American and NATO line remains "you are either with us, or against us". Such an attitude, accompanied by warnings that a more explicit alignment with Russia would have "significant and long-term consequences", shows not only a lack of understanding of India's role and contribution in the international arena but only prolongs the war in hand. The Americans and their NATO allies have historically botched up the end game in every war from Vietnam to Afghanistan, and it will take the efforts of neutral countries to bring this war to an end and face saving for both the parties.

 

Market forces

India is already the world’s third-largest economy by purchasing power parity ($8.9 trillion) and the fifth-largest at current exchange rates ($3.3 trillion). India’s consumer market is the world’s second-largest by volume and the third-largest by value. It is not a market US corporations can ignore. Our domestic investment in the equity market is so strong that recently when the foreign investors withdrew from the market following the US Federal Reserve’s accelerated taper programme that could see US treasury interest rates climbing six-fold to three per cent by year-end and because of the fear of inflation in India stoked by the spike at the price of crude oil due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the market celebrated it as a buying season and corrected itself in no time. India’s current total stock market capitalization is $3.21 trillion (Rs 245 lakh crore), the world’s fifth-largest behind the capitalization of stock markets in the US, China, Japan and Hong Kong and ahead of British and French equity markets. The withdrawal of foreign investment of Rs 1.14 lakh crore is a barely noticeable speck of 0.25 per cent, spread out over a year, from the total equity market capitalization of listed Indian stocks! So much for threat from FDIs!! India’s large economy, growing stock and consumer markets and vital new free trade agreements (FTAs) with leading global economies are too tempting to be ignored. 

 

Geopolitics and geo-strategic strength

When economies all around India – in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal, Malaysia are faltering, when political unrest is engulfing Pakistan, Myanmar, Afghanistan, when Corona is creating havoc in China, India has not only fed its 90 million people but is ready to help its neighbours and friends whose food-grain supply from Russia and Ukraine remain suspended because of the war. A flurry of world leaders and their envoys are visiting India and trying to influence her way of thinking. Russia values our neutrality and wishes to continue with the Rupee-Ruble trade. Washington needs India to counter China in the Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region. Beijing in turn seeks to persuade India to maintain a position of strategic autonomy — at arm’s length from the US-led coalition of democracies. In Beijing too, there is a belated realization that it has under-estimated India’s military resolve as the standoff in eastern Ladakh extends into its third year. The Chinese foreign minister has been curtly told that border dispute and trade cannot go on together, an extension of the famous Modi doctrine practiced with Pakistan – talks and terror cannot go on together.

 

China has other problems too

The Russia-Ukraine war has set back its plans to expand the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to central and Western Europe. The European Union is furious at China’s support of Russia. The economic and infrastructure partnership painstakingly built by Beijing in Europe has suffered a blow. China’s struggles with COVID-19 continue. It’s ageing workforce, a slowing economy, the steady drift of global supply chains away from China, and financial defaults by the real estate sector, which accounts for over 25 % of China’s GDP all are weakening it domestically and rising social tensions in the ambitious Chinese society.

 

The post war scenario

Even after this war is over though the might of Russia will be a diminished but will remain a wounded bear, an unpredictable ex-super-power. China will be emboldened and with its expansionist dreams and a tried and tested debt trap called BRI to ensnare unsuspected poorer countries. It will continue to harass its neighbours and debt victims alike. The Americans and their NATO allies will remain unpredictable as they have always been. The U.N will remain notoriously impotent because it fails to represent the geo-political realities of today. So newer alliances – both economic and defense, are vital and India is fast emerging as the pivot on which the balance of global power will turn. India’s political and economic stability and rising military capability to police the Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region in conjunction with the Quad’s US, Australia and Japan and others with strategic interest in the region like Britain and France make India a pivotal power in the arc from the Gulf of Aden to the Malacca Strait. This can be the only viable plan to check Chinese hegemony.

This is not India’s war. We are neither fighting it nor fueling it, but we and the rest of the developing world is suffering from it. The supply lines of food-grains, fertilizers and fuel which originate from Russia and Ukraine are disrupted leading to rising fuel prices and inflation in India and shortage of food-grains in many countries of Asia and Africa. India chooses to be a part of the solution by offering to rebuild Ukraine and supply wheat and medicines to countries from Vietnam to Nigeria, who are suffering the collateral damage of this war.

 

ORBITAL FRACTURES

Fractures of the Orbit form a handsome proportion of mid face fractures and are treated by a multi-disciplinary team, The close proximity of the eye and the brain make such a team approach mandatory. in this presentation we have offered a classification of Orbital Fractures, we have discussed about History taking and Examination of these patients, the investigations that are required, their surgical treatment  and their complications. This presentation is targeting the students of Surgery, Ophthalmology, Oral  Maxillofacial Surgery, Plastic Surgery and Cranio-facial Surgery. It will also serve as a module of Continuing Medical Education for our senior colleagues.

OUR NEIGHBOURHOOD – A BURNING FURNACE

 

A stable, friendly and peaceful, neighbourhood is vital for the progress of a nation, but alas we cannot choose our neighbours, we have to live with them. A tranquil neighbourhood helps to reduce additional political, economic and military burdens on a country. Its capacity to act on a regional or even global platform, depending on its size, strength and resources, is enhanced if it has the support and understanding of its neighbours. India’s neighbourhood is on fire right now. Failing economy, civil unrest, military coup, political crisis, unpredictable and irresponsible governments and devastation by Covid, there is evidence of crisis all around.

In a peaceful region the countries in the neighbourhood forge alliances, become free trade blocks, look after each other and prosper together. The ASEAN is a typical example of a successful alliance of independent nations. Unfortunately in the last 70 years we have not been able to forge such an alliance. India’s physical domination of its neighbourhood creates problems and even the sub-continent is called Indian sub-continent! Most of its neighbours excluding China are very small in comparison, geographically, demographically and economically. Even Pakistan is less than 15 percent of the size of India and way behind demographically and economically. If neighbours do not trust each other then they look for alliances and partnerships beyond their own region for advancing their own political, economic or security interests. Smaller countries fearful of being overwhelmed by bigger neighbours have interest in seeking ties with external powers, which may not enjoy friendly relation with the big brother.

Cultural Melting Pot

India and its neighbours share strong civilisational, cultural, linguistic and ethnic ties. This reality makes the neighbouring countries feel insecure in their separate identities.  As identity is a core constituent of a sense of nationhood, these countries foster it by consciously asserting their distinct identities. India is projected as a threat and a hegemonic. This serves the objective of the political classes in these countries to rally the people behind them on a nationalist platform against India’s hegemony. The ethnic links, such as those of the Madhesis in Nepal’s Terai region and Sri Lankan Tamils with India should have served as our cultural bridges but in the world of politics they in turn generate tensions. These sections of the population are not as yet fully integrated into the societies in which they live and suffer from disabilities and discriminatory treatment. Religion further complicates the situation and Hindus have faced persecution in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh. They are either suspected for their extra-territorial loyalties or are seen as instruments of Indian influence, or the sympathy and support they receive from groups in India create an atmosphere of distrust in bilateral relations.

China

China is our only neighbor bigger than us by size, resources and GDP. With its increased political, economic and military weight, it is stepping up its presence in countries around India. Sri Lanka, along with Myanmar, Bangladesh and Maldives, are targets for China's naval ambitions in the Indian Ocean area to protect its vital lines of communication through these waters. It is pursuing its strategic interests in Pakistan in the nuclear field, major road and power projects in POK and in the port of Gwadar. In Afghanistan China is investing heavily in the mineral sector and a railway link. It is likely to replace the absconding Americans but while doing so will increase our security risk. Pakistan and China, in their shared hostility towards India, have forged their “all weather friendship”. It is quite likely that Chinas aggressive posturing in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh is intended to deter India from taking advantage of a Pakistan currently in disarray, particularly after Modi government's approval of hot pursuit and surgical strikes. China has border dispute with 24 neighbours and India is not the only victim of its expansionist dreams. India is the only country which has seen through its nefarious Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) and called a spade a spade. The BRI is not actually about trade and infrastructure but about exporting Chinese debt abroad through opaque structuring of loans and investments enhancing China’s strategic influence in target countries. Our two neighbours Pakistan and Sri Lanka are already neck deep in this quicksand of BRI!

Pakistan

The problem with Pakistan is it does not understand democracy and its uncanny ability to run with the hare and hunt with the hound now stands exposed`. While all other countries have their armies to defend them, Pakistan Army has a country to rule, exploit and barter. The Army, being predominantly of Punjabi soldiers and officers, is not perceived as impartial by the residents of Sindh, Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunwa. Add to this their problem with political ruling families, who like their Indian counterparts, are notoriously corrupt and have, from time to time, moth-eaten their society and hollowed their coffers. Time and again they have teamed with religious extremists to rule, thus giving them legitimacy in their parliament but calling them as Non State Actors and using them as weapons against India. Generations have been sold the Kashmir dream and generations have lost opportunity to construct a prosperous nation. Their economy stands of two borrowed crutches one each from Saudi Arabia and China and they too are becoming increasingly unwilling donors. A country perennially on the FATF grey list with a history of maximum number of I.M.F bail outs, the country desperately needs some fresh ideas and fresh faces in their politics. But nothing will work if the legislature, the executive, the judiciary and the press are subservient to the Army, no matter how benevolent they are.  And unless Pakistan is ready to end its politics of confrontation with India, that includes the over-assertion of its Islamic identity, the fostering of the jihadi mentality, the nurturing of extremist religious groups involved in terrorism and the political domination of the military in the governance of the country, our relations will remain under stress.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka faces an economic crisis as it struggles to pay for essential imports of food and fuel after a 70% drop in foreign exchange reserves since January 2020 led to a currency devaluation. Sri Lanka is suffering bad governance. It voted this government with 2/3 majority in parliament and their parliament in turn gave the President extraordinary powers of the 20^th. Amendment to appoint ministers and secretaries at will to rubber-stamp the President’s rule. Today the debt-laden country is struggling to pay for imports of fuel and other goods due to a foreign exchange crisis, leading to hours-long power cuts and scarcity of fuel and food. Large scale robbery of government funds and exodus of this illegitimate wealth in tax heavens abroad by the ruling class has left the country so poor that it cannot afford to have a fresh election even. Yet another victim of family rule in this sub-continent, the country has approached the I.M.F sixteen times in the past to bail itself out of financial mess which is of its own making. An ill-advised flirtation with organic farming has ruined its agriculture and they can neither grow enough food grains to feed themselves nor enough tea to meet their export orders. Covid has crippled their tourism industry and today even hospitals are refusing planned surgeries because of lack of medicines! Add to it bad Chinese debt, the BRI, has crippled their economy to such an extent that they had to barter the Hambantota port to pacify the Chinese and increase India’s maritime stress. China has earned the gratitude of the Sri Lankan government by supplying it arms that helped in defeating the LTTE but it seems to have extracted its pound of flesh rather mercilessly.   

Bangladesh

Bangladesh was expected to be a perfectly good neighbor because the Indian Army shed its precious blood liberating it. We did not do any favour; it was our duty to stand against the oppression orchestrated by the Pakistan Army against the civilians which resulted in a deluge of refugees fleeing to our country. Unfortunately the country’s garrison politics took recourse to Islam for political sustenance. The Army, used to the Pakistani ways, considered Bangabondhu Shekh Mujibur Rehman to be a threat and assassinated him with I.S.I’s help. The pro-Pakistani elements, the Jamaite-Islami that had collaborated with the Pakistan army in carrying out pogroms in the pre-liberation days and had fled the country after it was liberated were rehabilitated. War criminals like Gholam Azam returned to Bangladesh and the Jamaat-e-Islami, of which Azam was the Emir, became a powerful factor in the country’s politics. The growing radicalization of the country also began linking it with the global Salafi movement and home-grown Islamist groups were soon making their way to places such as Tora Bora in Afghanistan to fight alongside the Al-Qaeda. These Islamist groups even today are working overtime to Talibanize the secular fabric of Bangladesh. No wonder their Hindu population is rapidly shrinking and their relations with India are strained. Today Bangabondhu’s daughter is the Prime Minister and India-Bangladesh relations have been steadily improving and so is the political and economic dynamics of the region. Bangladesh can play a positive part in linking the eastern region of India to Myanmar, Thailand and beyond. Internal resistance from anti-Indian elements in the bureaucracy and the undercurrent of fundamental extremism remains a big hindrance. The illegal migration of Rohingya refugees through our porous borders and their rehabilitation in Indian mainland by some minority appeasing political parties of India remain a security threat to us.

Nepal

We are two nations with deep cultural, religious and linguistic ties but our relations have not been as good as they should be. In 2020 ties between the two soured after both India and Nepal, one after the other, published maps in which they included Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura region in their side of the territory. For quite some time, the trust deficit between Nepal and India largely affected the implementation of various Indian-aided projects in Nepal. At times, some of the Indian investment projects had been attacked. China is trying to fish in troubled waters and an over-active Chinese ambassador to Nepal tried her level best to flare up the border issue but gladly better senses prevailed and Nepal was the beneficiary of our vaccine diplomacy when it was hit by Covid.

Myanmar

Myanmar has not figured sufficiently in our political consciousness as our neighbour, despite the fact that it is contiguous with our troubled north-eastern border states and we have vital security interests to protect in developing close ties with it. An elected government has been toppled, the Buddhists and the Muslims have fought bitterly in Rakhine and an ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas has been carried out by the all powerful military. Rohingyas are a Muslim minority in Myanmar regarded by many Myanmar Buddhists as illegal migrants from Bangladesh, a controversial claim without strong evidence. The Rohingyas have lived in Myanmar for generations and the Bangladesh government has called on Myanmar to take them back. As the world’s largest democracy India cannot afford to be seen hobnobbing with military dictators but we cannot ignore them either. China is busy wooing them with arms and building naval infrastructure in their coastline and we cannot remain silent spectators.  

Afghanistan

If Afghanistan is not seen as our immediate neighbor it is because of Pakistan’s illegal occupation of the northern areas of Jammu and Kashmir. The absurd end to U.S. occupation, their irresponsible retreat and their gift of priceless arms and ammunition to an even more irresponsible Taliban has made the super-power a laughing stock on either side of the Durand line and increased our security risk manifold. After the abrogation of Article 370 Kashmir is on road to recovery and the unemployed Taliban rogue fighters, with tacit support of Pakistani I.S.I can derail the process of rebuilding Kashmir.

Maldives

Maldives is suddenly witnessing a surge in the ‘India Out’ campaign promoted by ex-President Abdulla Yameen as he plans to make a comeback in politics. Like the Begum Khaleeda Zia of Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Mr. Abdulla Ammen’s politics is based exclusively on anti India policy despite enjoying several India funded projects of national interest and needless to say he thrives on Chinese patronage. The ‘India Out’ campaign gained momentum in 2021 after Maldives and India signed a military pact in February that year.

 

India has to make peace with her neighbours in order to prosper but for that to happen her neighbours have to be in peace within their own countries. Sadly, that is not the case today and except Bhutan and Bangladesh all our neighbours are unsettled and in turmoil. There is very little we can do to help them to put their respective houses on order. But if they remain unsettled, we too have sleepless nights because we can only prosper together.