A stable, friendly and peaceful, neighbourhood is vital for the progress of a nation, but alas we cannot choose our neighbours, we have to live with them. A tranquil neighbourhood helps to reduce additional political, economic and military burdens on a country. Its capacity to act on a regional or even global platform, depending on its size, strength and resources, is enhanced if it has the support and understanding of its neighbours. India’s neighbourhood is on fire right now. Failing economy, civil unrest, military coup, political crisis, unpredictable and irresponsible governments and devastation by Covid, there is evidence of crisis all around.
In a peaceful region the countries in the neighbourhood forge alliances, become free trade blocks, look after each other and prosper together. The ASEAN is a typical example of a successful alliance of independent nations. Unfortunately in the last 70 years we have not been able to forge such an alliance. India’s physical domination of its neighbourhood creates problems and even the sub-continent is called Indian sub-continent! Most of its neighbours excluding China are very small in comparison, geographically, demographically and economically. Even Pakistan is less than 15 percent of the size of India and way behind demographically and economically. If neighbours do not trust each other then they look for alliances and partnerships beyond their own region for advancing their own political, economic or security interests. Smaller countries fearful of being overwhelmed by bigger neighbours have interest in seeking ties with external powers, which may not enjoy friendly relation with the big brother.
Cultural Melting Pot
India and its neighbours share strong civilisational, cultural, linguistic and ethnic ties. This reality makes the neighbouring countries feel insecure in their separate identities. As identity is a core constituent of a sense of nationhood, these countries foster it by consciously asserting their distinct identities. India is projected as a threat and a hegemonic. This serves the objective of the political classes in these countries to rally the people behind them on a nationalist platform against India’s hegemony. The ethnic links, such as those of the Madhesis in Nepal’s Terai region and Sri Lankan Tamils with India should have served as our cultural bridges but in the world of politics they in turn generate tensions. These sections of the population are not as yet fully integrated into the societies in which they live and suffer from disabilities and discriminatory treatment. Religion further complicates the situation and Hindus have faced persecution in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh. They are either suspected for their extra-territorial loyalties or are seen as instruments of Indian influence, or the sympathy and support they receive from groups in India create an atmosphere of distrust in bilateral relations.
China
China is our only neighbor bigger than us by size, resources and GDP. With its increased political, economic and military weight, it is stepping up its presence in countries around India. Sri Lanka, along with Myanmar, Bangladesh and Maldives, are targets for China's naval ambitions in the Indian Ocean area to protect its vital lines of communication through these waters. It is pursuing its strategic interests in Pakistan in the nuclear field, major road and power projects in POK and in the port of Gwadar. In Afghanistan China is investing heavily in the mineral sector and a railway link. It is likely to replace the absconding Americans but while doing so will increase our security risk. Pakistan and China, in their shared hostility towards India, have forged their “all weather friendship”. It is quite likely that Chinas aggressive posturing in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh is intended to deter India from taking advantage of a Pakistan currently in disarray, particularly after Modi government's approval of hot pursuit and surgical strikes. China has border dispute with 24 neighbours and India is not the only victim of its expansionist dreams. India is the only country which has seen through its nefarious Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) and called a spade a spade. The BRI is not actually about trade and infrastructure but about exporting Chinese debt abroad through opaque structuring of loans and investments enhancing China’s strategic influence in target countries. Our two neighbours Pakistan and Sri Lanka are already neck deep in this quicksand of BRI!
Pakistan
The problem with Pakistan is it does not understand democracy and its uncanny ability to run with the hare and hunt with the hound now stands exposed`. While all other countries have their armies to defend them, Pakistan Army has a country to rule, exploit and barter. The Army, being predominantly of Punjabi soldiers and officers, is not perceived as impartial by the residents of Sindh, Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunwa. Add to this their problem with political ruling families, who like their Indian counterparts, are notoriously corrupt and have, from time to time, moth-eaten their society and hollowed their coffers. Time and again they have teamed with religious extremists to rule, thus giving them legitimacy in their parliament but calling them as Non State Actors and using them as weapons against India. Generations have been sold the Kashmir dream and generations have lost opportunity to construct a prosperous nation. Their economy stands of two borrowed crutches one each from Saudi Arabia and China and they too are becoming increasingly unwilling donors. A country perennially on the FATF grey list with a history of maximum number of I.M.F bail outs, the country desperately needs some fresh ideas and fresh faces in their politics. But nothing will work if the legislature, the executive, the judiciary and the press are subservient to the Army, no matter how benevolent they are. And unless Pakistan is ready to end its politics of confrontation with India, that includes the over-assertion of its Islamic identity, the fostering of the jihadi mentality, the nurturing of extremist religious groups involved in terrorism and the political domination of the military in the governance of the country, our relations will remain under stress.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka faces an economic crisis as it struggles to pay for essential imports of food and fuel after a 70% drop in foreign exchange reserves since January 2020 led to a currency devaluation. Sri Lanka is suffering bad governance. It voted this government with 2/3 majority in parliament and their parliament in turn gave the President extraordinary powers of the 20th. Amendment to appoint ministers and secretaries at will to rubber-stamp the President’s rule. Today the debt-laden country is struggling to pay for imports of fuel and other goods due to a foreign exchange crisis, leading to hours-long power cuts and scarcity of fuel and food. Large scale robbery of government funds and exodus of this illegitimate wealth in tax heavens abroad by the ruling class has left the country so poor that it cannot afford to have a fresh election even. Yet another victim of family rule in this sub-continent, the country has approached the I.M.F sixteen times in the past to bail itself out of financial mess which is of its own making. An ill-advised flirtation with organic farming has ruined its agriculture and they can neither grow enough food grains to feed themselves nor enough tea to meet their export orders. Covid has crippled their tourism industry and today even hospitals are refusing planned surgeries because of lack of medicines! Add to it bad Chinese debt, the BRI, has crippled their economy to such an extent that they had to barter the Hambantota port to pacify the Chinese and increase India’s maritime stress. China has earned the gratitude of the Sri Lankan government by supplying it arms that helped in defeating the LTTE but it seems to have extracted its pound of flesh rather mercilessly.
Bangladesh
Bangladesh was expected to be a perfectly good neighbor because the Indian Army shed its precious blood liberating it. We did not do any favour; it was our duty to stand against the oppression orchestrated by the Pakistan Army against the civilians which resulted in a deluge of refugees fleeing to our country. Unfortunately the country’s garrison politics took recourse to Islam for political sustenance. The Army, used to the Pakistani ways, considered Bangabondhu Shekh Mujibur Rehman to be a threat and assassinated him with I.S.I’s help. The pro-Pakistani elements, the Jamaite-Islami that had collaborated with the Pakistan army in carrying out pogroms in the pre-liberation days and had fled the country after it was liberated were rehabilitated. War criminals like Gholam Azam returned to Bangladesh and the Jamaat-e-Islami, of which Azam was the Emir, became a powerful factor in the country’s politics. The growing radicalization of the country also began linking it with the global Salafi movement and home-grown Islamist groups were soon making their way to places such as Tora Bora in Afghanistan to fight alongside the Al-Qaeda. These Islamist groups even today are working overtime to Talibanize the secular fabric of Bangladesh. No wonder their Hindu population is rapidly shrinking and their relations with India are strained. Today Bangabondhu’s daughter is the Prime Minister and India-Bangladesh relations have been steadily improving and so is the political and economic dynamics of the region. Bangladesh can play a positive part in linking the eastern region of India to Myanmar, Thailand and beyond. Internal resistance from anti-Indian elements in the bureaucracy and the undercurrent of fundamental extremism remains a big hindrance. The illegal migration of Rohingya refugees through our porous borders and their rehabilitation in Indian mainland by some minority appeasing political parties of India remain a security threat to us.
Nepal
We are two nations with deep cultural, religious and linguistic ties but our relations have not been as good as they should be. In 2020 ties between the two soured after both India and Nepal, one after the other, published maps in which they included Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura region in their side of the territory. For quite some time, the trust deficit between Nepal and India largely affected the implementation of various Indian-aided projects in Nepal. At times, some of the Indian investment projects had been attacked. China is trying to fish in troubled waters and an over-active Chinese ambassador to Nepal tried her level best to flare up the border issue but gladly better senses prevailed and Nepal was the beneficiary of our vaccine diplomacy when it was hit by Covid.
Myanmar
Myanmar has not figured sufficiently in our political consciousness as our neighbour, despite the fact that it is contiguous with our troubled north-eastern border states and we have vital security interests to protect in developing close ties with it. An elected government has been toppled, the Buddhists and the Muslims have fought bitterly in Rakhine and an ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas has been carried out by the all powerful military. Rohingyas are a Muslim minority in Myanmar regarded by many Myanmar Buddhists as illegal migrants from Bangladesh, a controversial claim without strong evidence. The Rohingyas have lived in Myanmar for generations and the Bangladesh government has called on Myanmar to take them back. As the world’s largest democracy India cannot afford to be seen hobnobbing with military dictators but we cannot ignore them either. China is busy wooing them with arms and building naval infrastructure in their coastline and we cannot remain silent spectators.
Afghanistan
If Afghanistan is not seen as our immediate neighbor it is because of Pakistan’s illegal occupation of the northern areas of Jammu and Kashmir. The absurd end to U.S. occupation, their irresponsible retreat and their gift of priceless arms and ammunition to an even more irresponsible Taliban has made the super-power a laughing stock on either side of the Durand line and increased our security risk manifold. After the abrogation of Article 370 Kashmir is on road to recovery and the unemployed Taliban rogue fighters, with tacit support of Pakistani I.S.I can derail the process of rebuilding Kashmir.
Maldives
Maldives is suddenly witnessing a surge in the ‘India Out’ campaign promoted by ex-President Abdulla Yameen as he plans to make a comeback in politics. Like the Begum Khaleeda Zia of Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Mr. Abdulla Ammen’s politics is based exclusively on anti India policy despite enjoying several India funded projects of national interest and needless to say he thrives on Chinese patronage. The ‘India Out’ campaign gained momentum in 2021 after Maldives and India signed a military pact in February that year.
India has to make peace with her neighbours in order to prosper but for that to happen her neighbours have to be in peace within their own countries. Sadly, that is not the case today and except Bhutan and Bangladesh all our neighbours are unsettled and in turmoil. There is very little we can do to help them to put their respective houses on order. But if they remain unsettled, we too have sleepless nights because we can only prosper together.
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