GOOD BYE BUBLU!

Bublu and Tublu

What’s the hardest part of getting older? It’s not aches and wrinkles. Not even close. It is losing friends. But even though we can’t stop any of this from happening, we’re not powerless, we can share our grief and lighten it. Today I lost my childhood friend Bublu. She slept in her bed in Noida last night and slipped into her eternal sleep never to wake again!

Sashwati Das Gupta, as she was known to the world, was an invaluable member of my group of friends from our childhood days. As friends we spent the best days of our life together in Lucknow and then branched out all over the world to earn our livelihood. But our sacred roots kept us connected no matter where we were. Then one day our friend, the fittest among us, and a valiant soldier, Tinku (Col. Supratim Chatterjee), passed away. His parents were still around and it was not only untimely but extremely tragic. And then we lost Dulal (Dipankar Bhowmik), the very best specimen of human being, kind, considerate and always helpful. God needed him more than we did it seems and he left us after a brief illness. And today Bublu is gone.

After doing her schooling from Mount Carmel School and graduation from I.T. College she left home for Kolkata to teach children. She later moved to Kalimpong in North Bengal with her friend Debi, for a new job in a boarding school and later retired to a small flat in Noida. She was not exactly pink in health and needed a walker to get around but her mind was agile and creative as ever.

Our parents were friends and now that only a very few of their generation are around and we too live our own lives in different cities, the social media and the telephone are our only connections.

As we’re approaching the other end of life, the view is so much different from here. We don’t talk about how someday we’ll have to say goodbye. I suspect that’s because we can’t even bear to think about it. Yet, the inevitable sad truth is that time is marching on for all of us whether we like it or not. And we’re getting pushed to the front of the line.

On an intellectual level, I know that death is a very important, though terminal part of life, yet I struggle to reconcile this unfair, if inherent, consequence. In the second half of our lives, we experience more losses. These losses run deep, in part because the relationships are formed over a lifetime. Even though we take on different roles as we move through life, we never lose our initial identity as the “child of” or the “brother/sister of.” And I would include the “friend of.”With aging come the inevitable deaths of those we love. It’s hard but it’s also a time of opportunity to live, love and mourn as fully as we can.

Our childhood friends

I do not know about you, but childhood friends are a part of my family. Our parents came from both West Bengal and East Pakistan and chose Lucknow to be their home. They brought their colours, their flavours, their cuisine, their culture, their dresses, their festivals, their music, their dance and their civilization and even with meager resources at their disposal, established a whole new world! We were members of a large and extended family. In the loss of a childhood friend, I see the gradual disintegration of that world!

I should have been in Noida today to bid my final good bye but the virus scare and the lock-down is forcing us to stay indoors. There is no way her brother Tublu (Tanmay Das Gupta), her sister in law, Indrani and her niece Rim-jhim can make it either as no international flights are landing in Delhi. I guess this is destiny.

Good bye Bublu!!

LEADERSHIP MATTERS MOST IN TIMES OF CRISIS

COVID 19 is a test of leadership. Authentic leadership does not come from your title or from the size of your paycheck. Instead, this form of leadership comes from your being and the person that you are. Authentic leadership is all about being the person you know in your heart you have always been destined to be. When country after country is reeling under the crisis of Corona virus, the world is urgently in need of authentic leadership to guide it through this crisis.

Some world leaders like the American President Donald Trump are trying to make this crisis a choice between health and economy. Nothing can be farther from truth. Tom Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, wrote in The Washington Post on Wednesday: “The choice is not between health and economics but about optimizing the public health response to save lives while minimizing economic harm.”

Leaders of China, Italy and Spain have made the same mistake in the past and put economy ahead of health of their people and have paid or still paying the price. Their curve has climbed vertically overwhelming even their fairly advanced health system and unfortunately America is going the same way.

What do you think people are most concerned today about? They are asking am I safe? Is my family safe? Will I get paid again? Will my savings last, if I have any? When will my children get back to school? When am I realistically going to be able to get back to work? Will my workplace be shut forever? These are genuine concerns, and they need an answer from their leader. Similarly every shop owner, small-business manager, multinational C.E.O., banker, investor and entrepreneur is also clouded in uncertainty.  In their mind they are always thinking when can I realistically expect to get my business back up and running? Where and when do I redeploy my workers or hunt for capital? Who do I lay off and who do I hold onto? That the stock market skeptically bounced back a bit because of Reserve Bank’s intervention and even that does not relieve their anxiety either. The same gloom prevails both in Dalal Street and the empty city streets. This is where the role of a leader becomes vital. And this is also the occasion to assess what we need to see in a leader.

As I see it today, there are a few absolutely essential qualities in their leader which every country has a right to look forward to:

1. They speak the truth. In world today, we frequently 'swallow our truth'. We say things to please others and to look good in front of ‘The Crowd.’ There is a huge temptation for the American public to pack their churches for Easter prayers………But honestly, is it possible to promise the same! The American President went ahead and announced it publicly! Authentic leaders are different, they don’t weave impossible illusions. Speaking truth is simply about being clear, being honest and being authentic.

2. They lead from the heart, they have empathy. This crisis is all about people first and economy next. Leadership is about people. The best leaders wear their hearts on their sleeves and are not afraid to show their vulnerability. They genuinely care about other people and spend their days developing the people around them. They are like the sun: the sun gives away all it has to the plants and the trees. But in return, the plants and the trees always grow toward the sun. While the entire Indian nation with its 1.3 billion people is with Modi, even the elected State Governors in America are not with trump. California and New York governors have enforced complete lockdown much to the dissatisfaction of their President.

3. They have rich moral fiber. Who you are speaks far more loudly than anything you could ever say. Strength of character is true power - and people can feel it a mile away. Authentic leaders work on their character. They walk their talk and are aligned with their core values. They are noble and good. And in doing so, people trust, respect and listen to them. Given a choice between lives of their people and economy of the nation they choose the people every time. Only a morally challenged would think otherwise.

4. They are courageous. It takes a lot of courage to go against the crowd. It takes a lot of courage to be a visionary. It takes a lot of inner strength to do what you think is right even though it may not be easy. We live in a world where so many people walk the path of least resistance. Authentic leadership is all about taking the road less traveled and doing, not what is easy, but what is right. Our economy was tottering even before the virus attack and we could never afford the economic lockdown but our leader made the difficult choice of lockdown because only if we succeed in flattening the curve will we be able to save more lives, and that is most important.

5. They do what is correct and not what is easy. Lifting the lockdown and going for work as usual is easy, but leadership is not about doing what is easy, it is about doing what is eight, and right for everyone.  The public should have confidence in the leader that he actually has a plan to fight this virus, save everyone and then we can and rapidly reopen the economy based on science and data.

5. They build teams and plan to create excellence. The leader and his team need to device a strategic approach and stick to it — not go off on tangents every day in their press briefings like the American President does. Yes, mistakes happen; we should have thought of the migrant laborers before imposing the lock down, but course correction has been done. Conveying this to the people, all of whom might not have voted for him, requires exceptional communication skills which have been demonstrated by no only the Indian but also the Canadian and the New Zealand prime ministers, but sadly nor by many others. By taking ICMR, several governmental ministries and the State Governments together Modi has formed a formidable team, whereas Trump is still at loggerheads with his science pool and in a hurry to open the economy because many more would die of depression and suicide if they don’t get their wages!

6. They are dreamers. Einstein said, “Imagination is more important than knowledge.” It is from our imaginations that great things are born. Authentic leaders dare to dream impossible dreams. They see what everyone else sees and then dream up new possibilities. They spend a lot of time with their eyes closed creating blueprints and fantasies that lead to better products, better services, better workplaces and deeper value.

7. They commit to excellence rather than perfection. No human being is perfect. Every single one of us is a work in progress. Authentic leaders commit themselves to excellence in everything that they do. They are constantly pushing the envelope and raising their standards. They do not seek perfection and have the wisdom to know the difference.

8. They leave a legacy. To live in the hearts of the people around you is to never die. Success is wonderful but significance is even better. A leader is made to contribute and to leave a mark on the people around him/her. In failing to live from this frame of reference, they betray themselves. Authentic leaders are constantly building their legacies by adding deep value to everyone that they deal with and leaving the world a better place in the process.

The Corona virus crisis is in itself a big crisis. World leaders should not complicate it by the crisis of ignorance and leadership.  So much is riding on the decisions that they, and only they, can make.  In combating the Corona virus, saving lives and getting as many back to work as quickly as possible their decisions are most vital. A team of leading public health experts can be chosen to deal with every stage of the crisis and the leader should be in constant touch with them, guiding them, and also being guided by them.

WORKING FROM HOME

Even Prince Charles is working from home! In accordance with government and medical advice, the Prince and Duchess are now in self-isolation at home in Scotland. I never knew he drove to an office through a busy traffic! I thought he and his mother always worked from home!! So that makes us equal! In this gloomy atmosphere of Coronavirus induced quarantine that is surely a moral boosting thought.

When you wake up, hurriedly freshen up, stuff your breakfast in breakneck speed and have to rush out of your home to work, working from home can seem like a dream. Well, in light of the recent  Coronavirus outbreak, that dream came true for 1.3 billion Indians and another few billion in 130 countries!

True, the economy has gone to the dumps and if and when we make it through this crisis we will have to dig it out of a hole, but all businesses are not doing badly. The E-commerce sites, the E – conference call sites like Zoom, the E-learning sites and the E-fitness sites are booming with new businesses. Netflix and other entertainment sites have never had better days! But the rest of us are trying to pick up the pieces of our livelihood, working from home!

  

Working from home has a lot of benefits as well, and for many people, it has already been the norm anyway. You can better utilize the commute time and by staying off the roads you are reducing your carbon footprints. Less traffic in the roads will mean fewer accidents and less traffic jams and clean air and cleaner cities. But it can be a difficult transition for those who are new to it, and working from home certainly has its own obstacles. One of my patients, who routinely works from home, shared some tips, tried by him and his species who have some experience in remote work. I hope these will be useful and will help you make the best out of this new situation.

1. Wake up and get started

Not having to commute is nice, as it allows you a little bit more sleep. Avoid this temptation. Your commute offers an opportunity to shake off the sleepiness and your transition into a work mode is complete. We have to make it on time - we have to act now or we’ll be late. Adopt the same approach to working from home. Wake up, make some coffee and just get started with some exercise.  It’ll help you get rid of that morning sluggishness the same way driving or catching a bus / metro would have done.

2. Pretend you’re about to leave

There is some lure in working in the same pajamas you’ve been wearing for three days straight. But it wears off. If it’s working for you, that’s great. But if you feel it gets you into a lazy zone, simply stop doing it. Wake up, shave, if you do and get ready, as if you’re about to go to the office. You can shower, put on nice clothes and have your morning coffee once you’re ready. If there is chance of a conference call then at least your top half should be formally presentable.

3. Have a Dedicated Work Space

Not everyone has an extra room they can make an office out of, but that doesn’t mean you can’t use the space you do have and make it prime for working. It can be the kitchen table, a desk in your bedroom, or even a table on the balcony or yard. Make this your allocated workspace, and keep your work-related essentials there.  I prefer my home library in the background, it gives a study like feeling!

4. Time table is a must - time the big tasks for productive hours

No one is productive for 8 hours straight. Our motivation naturally ebbs and flows, and for each person, peak hours of productivity differ. Outline a plan for your day, and time the bigger and more complex tasks for the period of the day when you know you’ll be in the right frame of mind for them. Leave the more logistical stuff for the slower hours. Managing to complete a few small things will give you a sense of accomplishment and readiness to tackle the heavier ones.

5. Take two breaks at least

Don’t overdo it. ‘Taking a break’ in your home can cause some of us to feel guilty, as it’s so easy to fall into a trap of an endless halt. Try to change this way of thinking. Schedule as many breaks as you would have taken in the office, and try to have them away from your desk and without a screen involved.

6. Use Technology to Your Benefit

We live in quite amazing times. There is so much technology at our disposal, running a whole life from the comfort of our homes is easier than ever. Communicate with your colleagues as much as possible. You can use a document sharing platform like Dropbox or Google docs. Everyone can access it and share their work. Knowing where everyone stands in terms of work will make you feel connected, and will help shake off isolation or a sense of working in a void.

In your work place you accidently run into colleagues and friends. Technology can be a helpful tool here again.  Message the people you would usually talk to about non-work related things. Give video calls if you feel lonely, seeing people’s faces and hearing their voices makes all the difference sometimes.

7. Cut out the technology that distracts you

Technology has a ‘dark side’, too and social media can be a big distraction. In order to stay productive with all these temptations, experts advise logging out of all your social media accounts during work hours. There are private browsers, like the ‘incognito’ option on Chrome that keep you logged out automatically. 

8. Find the Right Music if it helps

Music works differently for everyone. For some like me it is a distraction, and for others - a helpful tool. My work is my music but others who do monotonous tasks, or during the morning hours when they need a kick you can choose anything from a religious hymn to lyric-free background music. There are many ‘study beats’ playlists available on YouTube and other music streaming apps.

If you feel even that is too much, but you still need something to break the silence, there are also ‘white noise’ apps that some experienced home-workers find useful.

9. Communicate Expectations with Your Housemates

Whether you live with your family or housemates, you will need to be clear with them about your situation and your expectations from them. Let them know what your working hours are, and the kind of cooperation you will need from them. Make sure that your working station allows them to feel comfortable in the house as well while respecting your space. And no, you cannot leave your work and go to the bazaar just because you are home.

10. Cooking

Working from home means you might not have the option to grab something quickly from outside, especially under the Coronavirus restrictions, when many restaurants and cafes are closed and leaving the house at all isn’t recommended. To be as efficient as possible, prepare lunch the day before, just like you would prepare a lunchbox to take to the office with you. You can even do it for a couple of days ahead. It will give you peace of mind, and you won’t have to hassle over food and waste your work energy. If your wife does it for you, do not forget to thank her.

So, now that you have to work from home, make this a disciplined effort.

COVID 19: THE EDUCATED CLASS IS BETRAYING US

This was not an ordinary morning. Since yesterday half of my city is in virtual lock-down and my driver was livid “Sahab, parhe likhe logon ne hame dhokha diya, warna ham bach jate!” (Sir, the educated elite have betrayed us, otherwise we were safe). His anger was justifiably aimed at a Bollywood Diva, who calls Lucknow her home. She arrived in Mumbai from London and was advised home quarantine by doctors in the airport. She however thought the doctors were stupidly over-reacting and chose to fly by a commercial flight to Lucknow, meet friends, family and fans in her locality, party with them in her housing society and in a 5 star hotel in the city and in a few other places and then yesterday was forcefully sent to quarantine after testing positive for Corona virus.

The Bollywood crooner’s Corona positivity has sparked a domino effect which now extends even up to the President of India, who is now in self quarantine! The health minister of Uttar Pradesh, a past Chief Minister and Royalty of Rajasthan and her son who is a Member of Parliament and through him so many members and officials of our parliament have been tagged by contact tracing now……but what if it is too late?

Jumping quarantine has become a new pastime of the elite class. Four passengers were deboarded from the Mumbai-Delhi Garib Rath train in Mumbai for the same reason. Barely an hour after the train left Mumbai, some passengers and the travelling ticket examiners raised an alarm when they noticed the "quarantine stamp" on the back of the palms of the four. The train was stopped at Palghar and the four passengers were offloaded and immediately handed over to the Palghar District medical authorities. It is not clear how they managed to evade the attention of the Mumbai health authorities, reach the railway station, book tickets, board the train and travel unhindered for over an hour before being offloaded at Palghar station.

Similar stories are coming out of Kolkata where first identified carrier of the deadly coronavirus and members of his family moved around Kolkata for more than 48 hours without any restriction. The 18-year-old youth’s mother is a senior bureaucrat at the state home department. She went to her office at Nabanna, the state secretariat, on March 16, a day after her son arrived from London. She spent a few hours at Nabanna, even as Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee was taking emergency measures for the general public and issuing warnings.

160 people from Punjab who were asked to isolate themselves are now missing, unreachable, and untraceable. People are running away from isolation centres. Some are complaining that they need better facilities, cleaner washrooms without realizing the seriousness of their quarantine. These people have been evacuated by the government from Corona hot spots like China, Italy, Iran and U.K at tax payer’s money and now are jumping quarantine! How ungrateful and how inconsiderate can they be?

So, in this backdrop here is my question of the day “Why are the educated elite betraying us and sabotaging all our efforts to contain this pandemic to Stage II? The answer lies in our system of education.  Our Macaulay's system of education was not designed to produce enlightened citizens. It usually ends up with selfish, arrogant elites who, if they are lucky to come in touch with our so called 'un-educated' but profoundly wise citizens living in the hinterlands end up imbibing some common sense and wisdom at a later date. A teacher or a parent in India today emphasizes upon the children that if they get good education they will get good jobs and reach to good positions in life. The emphasis from the very beginning is on what will be good for the child and no wonder he / she turns out to be selfish and self-centred. If instead we could have taught them how education will give them an opportunity to make this world a better place to live in, to help those who are less privileged, we would have produced enlightened world citizens, all Indians could be proud of. This is what the New Education Policy should aim at.

Quarantine and lock-downs are extreme steps but China has shown that it works. Wuhan is fast returning to normal. Italy, on the other hand, has missed the bus. COVID 19 cases are rapidly rising and their death toll has surpassed that of a far more populous China. India cannot go the Italy way. We have to take strict punitive action against these elite enlightened idiots to prevent our poor from getting infected, because if that happens our mortality figures will skyrocket.

Italy has quarantines 16 million people and spelt out the punitive measures if people fail to comply. China, not known for tolerating indiscipline, has already punished people trying to jump quarantine with fines and imprisonment. Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines in Asia and almost all European countries are insisting on Social Distancing for the public and quarantine for the suspects. A person who violates the conditions of house quarantine, the conditions of observation, shall be held accountable in accordance with the legislation of the land.

Kyrgyz Republic has extracted rules from its penal code. According to Article 280 of the Criminal Code of the Kyrgyz Republic, a person who intentionally or inadvertently violates the sanitary and epidemiological rules, who inadvertently causes a mass disease, poisoning of people or other serious harm, is punished with a fine of category VI or imprisonment of category II with the deprivation of the right to hold certain posts or engage in certain activities for a term up to two years.

We must stop, contain, control, delay and reduce the impact of this virus at every opportunity. Every person has the capacity to contribute, to protect themselves, to protect others, whether in the home, the community, the healthcare system, the workplace or the transport system. Leaders at all levels and in all walks of life must step forward to bring about this commitment across society. It is time the decision makers and the decision takers are in the same page, and those who refuse to comply should be in jails. Why should those who can’t even dream of a holiday in Italy die because of those who have returned from there and behaved irresponsibly thereafter?

COVID 19: WILL WE BE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE CURVE?

When a new epidemic explodes onto the scene, experts look for two main numbers: how many people each patient will infect and how many people will die from the disease. To do this we plot the daily number of cases in ‘X axis’ and the number of cases since the first case in ‘Y axis’ on a graph. This helps them plot an arc for the outbreak: how far it will likely spread before a vaccine is rolled out or enough people who have recovered from the illness with virus-fighting antibodies in their system build up "herd immunity" against it.

The "curve" researchers are talking about refers to the projected number of people who will contract COVID-19 over a period of time. This is not a hard prediction of how many people will definitely be infected, but a theoretical number that's used to model the virus' spread. The curve takes on different shapes, depending on the virus's infection rate. It could be a steep curve, in which the virus spreads exponentially (that is, case counts keep doubling at a consistent rate), and the total number of cases skyrockets to its peak within a few weeks. Infection curves with a steep rise also have a steep fall; after the virus infects pretty much everyone who can be infected, case numbers begin to drop exponentially, too. A flatter curve, on the other hand, assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time. A slower infection rate means a less stressed health care system, fewer hospital visits on any given day and fewer sick people being turned away. So flattening this curve means slowing how fast the virus moves through the community.

Cases might appear in just a trickle at first but, once countries crack the 100 mark, the virus seems to either explode rapidly – such as in China initially, and then Iran, Italy, the US, and Spain – or slow to a flatter line as has been recorded elsewhere including Singapore and Hong Kong. Thus these two sets of countries present two different shapes of the curve.

In less than a month, the global number of confirmed COVID-19 cases doubled from about 75,000 cases on Feb. 20 to more than 153,000 on March 15. In Italy, for example — the country with the worst COVID-19 outbreak outside of China — confirmed cases doubled from 10,000 to 20,000 in just four days (March 11 to March 15). 

This rapid growth rate in Italy has already filled some hospitals there to capacity, forcing emergency rooms to close their doors to new patients, hire hundreds of new doctors and request emergency supplies of basic medical equipment, like respirator masks, from abroad. This lack of resources contributes, in part, to the outsize COVID-19 death rate in Italy, which is roughly 7% — double the global average.

By limiting opportunities for the virus to jump from person to person – by adopting "social distancing" measures (such as staying 1.5 metres away from others and avoiding public spaces) as well as improving hygiene and isolating those infected or exposed  countries like Singapore and Hong Kong have stretched out the spread of COVID-19 over time, giving doctors, economies (and vaccine-makers) space to breathe.

In India we are right now is at a very crucial juncture; if the curve keeps climbing, we will see a surge of cases needing medical intervention all at once and hospitals will likely run out of life-saving machines such as ventilators, which have been critical in treating patients stricken by more serious cases of the respiratory illness. That would push up the death toll and force impossible triage choices like the ones already facing doctors on the frontlines of the Italian outbreak (where an age limit has even been proposed in intensive care wards to free up beds for a growing number of younger patients in their 40s and 50s).

Historical perspective

During the world's last severe pandemic, the 1918 Spanish flu, the US city of Philadelphia took 14 days to mount a public health response after its first case, even pressing ahead with a big public march. St Louis, meanwhile, cracked down on people's movement and gatherings within just two days of the influenza strain entering its borders. By the end of the crisis, its death toll was less than half of Philadelphia's.

So nations that moved fast to test and track suspected cases and then brought in tough social distancing or containment measures along the lines of the St Louis model have already seen their infection growth fall, even after rapid early spread.

Countries from China and Italy to the US and Israel are turning to increasingly medieval methods to stem the tide of the pandemic, closing borders, raising barricades and shutting down much of daily life such as restaurants and workplaces. Other countries like Singapore and Taiwan have brought their caseloads under control by getting ahead of the curve early rather than bringing in lock-downs later, with more testing, forensically tracing cases back to other people who may have been exposed and making social distancing the norm.

Lock down or Surveillance

China's Communist government did something without precedent in modern times – it locked down cities and transport across huge swathes of the country, grounding tens of millions. Factories shut down. Schools and offices closed. Streets emptied. At the time, such a move seemed unthinkable in a Western democracy but numbers coming out of China today show  it appears to be working. China was clocking up more than 3000 new cases a day in early February. By mid-March, that number had fallen to less than 30. 

In Italy, the government was at first reluctant to impose such draconian measures on its densely populated cities. Should it really turn soccer fans away from matches? Or close bars, order people back into their homes from piazzas? But the blockades in the north, where the outbreak began, failed to stop infections leaking into the rest of the country – and beyond. Now Italy has gone into its own style of lockdown followed quickly by Spain, France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany, as cases in those nations also rise. 

China and South Korea – have gone further than just lock-downs. Knowing most infections so far have come from close contact in hospitals or family groups, those with (and sometimes without symptoms) are taken out of their homes and put into hospital isolation instead. Both countries, including success stories such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan, have also been aggressively hunting for cases – temperatures are taken before entering any building. If you have a fever, you must roll up to a specialized clinic or "drive-through" for testing.  

South Korea interestingly saw cases erupt within a religious sect and quickly deployed particularly exhaustive detective work to track down close contacts of known cases– famously using CCTV to trace people back to a specific bus or taxi and even prosecuting those who lied about their movements.

Part of the challenge facing world leaders is balancing the threat of the virus against the huge disruption of containment, which experts warn could bring its own health costs. 

In the midst of all this India has managed remarkably well by testing for the suspects at entry points - airports and sea ports and subsequently quarantining them and their immediate contacts for 14 days. Much as I would like to believe that we will be able to flatten the curve but considering our 1.3 billion population, our population density in the urban slums and hot spots and our ignorance of the poor and carelessness of the rich, we can go the other way too! We must strictly stick to our 5 point agenda – quarantine, contact tracing, public awareness, stop mass gathering and preparation and scaling up of infrastructure if we have to flatten the curve.

PREPARATION, NOT PANIC, INFORMATION, NOT RUMOUR AND WE CAN OVERCOME COVID-19

The W.H.O’s Corona virus report today morning reads:

• 162,687 cases confirmed
• 75,620 recoveries
• 6065 deaths
• China, South Korea, Iran and Italy remain in the forefront of the pandemic where it is in Stage IV.

In Italy, which is second only to mainland China for cases, victims could be left to die if they are aged 80 or more, or in poor health, under draft plans drawn up for the next phase of the crisis. There are reports Italy's death toll has spiked overnight. It has had a higher death rate than mainland China due to its elderly population.

Spain has locked down its 46 million citizens and France has ordered the closure of just about everything the rest of the world loves about it - the Eiffel Tower, the Louvre, the cafes, restaurants and cinema - as governments take increasingly desperate measures to put more space between people and contain the corona virus.

People from overseas coming into Australia will have to self-isolate themselves for 14 days after their federal government, states and territories moved to lock down the country. Those who refuse to comply face fines in Victoria of up to $20,000 or even imprisonment. Cruise ships are also banned from docking at any Australian port for 30 days. The country has effectively shut itself off from the rest of the world in a bid to slow the spread of the corona virus. A ban on all non-essential "static" events of 500 or more people has been imposed.

The NGV, State Library of Victoria, the Melbourne Museum, Royal Exhibition Building, Arts Centre and Scienceworks are all temporarily closed from today as events are cancelled and Melbourne's most popular venues shut down to prevent the spread of the corona virus. The start of the Austrlian Rules Football season (AFL) remains in doubt as it is a contact sport and attracts huge crowds in packed stadiums. The Cricket season has been interrupted and the Kiwis have returned home. Worshippers are going online as churches and mosques have banned gatherings of more than 500 people with many planning video-stream services. There are now 296 confirmed cases in Australia with 5 deaths.

4 Stages of Pandemic

All the South East Asian countries and Australia and New Zealand are in Stage II of the pandemic and desperately trying to avoid marching to Stage III. India too is in this same stage. Let us understand what that means by the following chart:

So we are in the stage of local transmission from positive cases and by a 5 prong approach of:

1. Quarantine
2. Contact tracing
3. Stopping mass gathering
4. Public Awareness
5. Preparation and infrastructure scale up

will help us to contain the disease in this stage II and not march on to stage III and IV when the disease assumes epidemic proportions in our country with disastrous consequences. We have a large border with China but fortunately because of the Himalayas and our strained relations it is not porous and people to people contact is not frequent. We however have open borders with Nepal and Bangladesh and to some extent with Pakistan and in order to remain in Stage II we have not only sealed these borders but extended regional cooperation to all our neighbours by a timely teleconferencing and setting up of an emergency fund to which India has contributed US$10 million.  So far, our region has listed fewer than 150 cases. But we need to remain vigilant – “prepare but don’t panic” was the buzzword! India also responded to the call of its citizens abroad and evacuated nearly 1,400 Indians from different countries along with citizens of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Maldives. The SAARC conference came even ahead of a similar conference requested by France for the G-7 countries -- Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States and this was truly creditable! 

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) -- the apex body in India for the formulation, coordination and promotion of biomedical research -- along with the Department of Health Research is supervising testing of samples and is ensuring quality of testing across the 52 labs. Also, 57 other laboratories are helping in sample collection for the testing of Covid-19.

A total of 56 DHR/ICMR Virus Research and Diagnostic Laboratories (VRDLs) and a laboratory at Leh have been designated to facilitate sample collection through government health authorities. Their role is to provide collection material (swabs and viral transport media) and facilitate the transport of samples to the nearest testing laboratory.

What is our testing strategy?

As there is no community transmission of the disease so all individuals need not be tested for COVID 19. Only direct contacts of laboratory confirmed positive cases and those with history of travel in the last 14 days to high risk COVID 19 affected countries are being tested and being subjected ho home quarantine for 14 days. This is where our social responsibility and integrity is being tested. If people jump quarantine and come out in the society, travel, go shopping then they will spread the infection in the community and we will slip into stage III and IV with alarming consequences. Like the government is doing in Australia these careless and selfish individuals should be punished.

So, why do you think we are not testing asymptomatic people? This is because without symptoms the viral load may be too low and escape detection and give them a false sense of security. Moreover ICMR laboratories can process 90 samples a day and we have only 51 laboratories doing this all over the country. No private laboratory is authorized to do this testing.

When do you need to get tested?

Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has come up with a very informative chart which will not only tell you whether you need to be tested but also provide you with a 24X7 helpline number 011-2397 8046

Social media misuse

The social media should have been a media to spread the correct information about COVID 19 but it is doing just the opposite on most occasions. Unsubstantiated and unscientific information claiming to be posted by WHO, UNICEF and host of other “authentic sources” gave gone viral and many are seen believing them and vouching for them. As if that was not enough, Cybersecurity firm Check Point has found 4000 new websites relating to Corona, 120 of which are clearly malicious and 200 more appear suspicious digital traps to steal personal data.

The rumours floating online range from ridiculous to dangerous.

• One message, claiming to be an advisory from UNICEF, debunked last week, asks people to avoid ice creams and other cold foods and recommends frequent washing of clothes because "corona virus when it falls on the fabric remains nine hours (sic)".
• Another recommends heavy Vitamin C intake, yet another message lists a do-it-yourself (DIY) detection test for the virus.
• A similar message warns people to "not hold your thirst because once your membrane in your throat is dried, the virus will invade into your body within 10 minutes."
• Another more sinister type of viral message lists large Hindu congregations and takes pride that they have never been sources of epidemics, alleging that "weirdest eating habits of some of the countries should be banned," and ending with extolling the virtues of Hinduism.
• Another one is if you can hold your breath for 1 minute you are safe.
• Drinking water every 15 minutes or better still a 'miracle mineral solution' of salt, lemon juice and citric acid will keep you safe.

These are simply viral lies and you should neither believe nor pass them on.

This is not the time for such amateur adventurism. Too much is at risk. Let the scientific community handle it for us. Abide by the rules and regulations and not by religious dogmas. The economy has already taken a beating and if we, God forbid, march on to Stage III and IV like China, Iran, South Korea and Italy, you will have to dig out what will be left of the economy from a deep hole! Help the government to help you and everybody. 

NEED FOR A NEW POLITICAL PARTY

Congress is falling apart bit by bit and with the exit of talented leaders like Jyotiraditya Scindhia the dam has just cracked open and many more will follow. But is it not an irony that a person who was so effectively critical of the BJP in parliament will now put on the saffron jersey and bat for it? For the BJP it can always say that it was able to convince him that the ideology he was following for the last 19 years was wrong, but for Scindhia himself what does it say? That it took 19 years for him to get it right! That does not make him look very smart, does it?

This sad story is not that of Congress alone but of almost all opposition parties, without distinction. Even a few BJP allies are infected by this virus - Pawan Verma is out of JDU! Shiromani Akali Dal too witnessed a division when Khadoor Sahib MP Ranjit Singh Brahmanpura along with former MP Rattan Singh Ajnala and former minister Sewa Singh Sekhwan floated a new organisation called themselves Shiromani Akali Dal (Taksali). Now let us look at the opposition parties other than Congress - SP is in fractions, two obvious and a few not so obvious; RJD has had quite a few deserting them, and so has TMC, NCP, BSP, BJD, AAP and PDP. So there is a sense of disenchantment and disillusionment in all opposition political parties as well as in a few of the ruling alliance. Why do you think it is so? What the press would like you to believe is BJP is engineering defections. Even if I believe this vested logic my question remains why is it succeeding in doing so?

I am of the opinion that all these political parties who cobble up to form an ineffective and inefficient opposition have stagnated and are being run like tribal jageers of fiefdoms by their leaders. There is no inner party democracy, no elections for the post of the leader and the leadership is being passed on in the ruling family to the next generation. Thus Mulayam passed on the taj to Akhilesh, Lalu to Tejaswi, Sharad Pawar to Ajit, Uddhav to Aditya, Maya and Mamta are grooming their nephews and even SAD looks like Badal & Sons Pvt. Ltd. These parties, as it is, never talked about representing the entire nation; they represented their caste, their creed, their state, their region and so had limited appeal, which was just enough to bring them to power by intelligent coalition. Now what has actually happened is that even their limited audience has realized that they actually represent a select few of them, like only the Yadavs in case of SP and RJD, or worse, only their family! There was a time when SP had only 5 MPs in parliament and all were from Mulayam's family! So actually there has been a gradual Congressization of the opposition. The virus of Dynasty has infected all of them and the ambitious and talented in these parties are feeling suffocated.

In this scenario, when there is no scope of progress of talented people in these parties they are bound to look out for greener pastures. When Scindhia knows that he can never become the Congress President. He may be talented, he may be blue blood but he is not a Gandhi, so what does he do?

Now this is where I pose my question? If you desert one of these parties do you have to join the BJP? Is this not opportunism on the part of both the deserters and the BJP? You were in the opposition because you had an ideological difference with the BJP. Now what has happened? Has the BJP changed its ideology? Apparently not; so it is you who is changing your ideology. And you are a leader, so now you will have to tell your followers why you are doing so. Are you doing it?

If instead of joining BJP en-mass these leaders coordinate among themselves and form their own left of centre alignment, distinctly separate from the right of centre BJP they can offer a viable pan India alternative to the BJP. They can then join hands with young leaders like Jagan Mohan Reddy and experienced and uncontroversial leaders like Naveen Patnaik and KCR and offer a vibrant opposition to the BJP. Just as it is essential for the country to have a decisive and majority government, it is also absolutely necessary to have a robust opposition. Just as an indecisive coalition government like UPA II is plagued with policy paralysis, an ineffective opposition like the present one leaves a hyper-active government in a state of policy epilepsy. By making an already strong BJP further strong these leaders are missing the golden opportunity of starting a genuine liberal outfit, untainted by pseudo-liberalism and pseudo-secularism. They need not be in a state of habitual opposition like the Congress but they can offer an alternative point of view when it matters most.

The balance of power in the parliament needs to be maintained and as recent events in both the houses have shown the anaemic opposition is trying to shout down the government, disrupt the proceeding and create ruckus because they neither have a better plan nor can they offer an alternate point of view. The era of appeasement politics and religion or caste based politics is hopefully behind us and repeated elections have shown that the governments have to deliver if they hope to be voted back to power. Congress is in the dumps and its history of dynasty, corruption and inefficiency will keep it there. Now it is time for the emergence of a new opposition party.

As per the statistics of the Election Commission of India we today have a total of 2599 parties with 8 national parties, 53 state parties and 2538 unrecognized parties. The new political outfit will have to align with the spirit of Sabka Sath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas, because this is the only credible slogan of progress and cannot be disputed. Their idea of how to achieve these ideals may be different but these ideals cannot be challenged. I have the sketch of one such party in my mind:

1.      They have to hold the government accountable for the state of the economy and the dismal state of employment

2.      They have to target the Education sector and ask tough questions about the state of our primary education, middle school education and higher education and is education improving employability. They should push for education reforms and be involved with the New Education Policy. They should force the government to spend more of education.

3.      They have to seek answers for the falling production figures; what are we doing wrong? Why are we losing out to smaller countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh?

4.      They should keep the government on its toes for the shameful Maternal Mortality and Infant Mortality rates. They should compel the government to spend more on health

5.      They should be vocal against corruption not only in the government but also in the opposition. The policy of selective name calling of the corrupt according to their own political comfort should be avoided at all cost.

6.      They should refrain from the policy of competitive victimization of various sections of the society along the lines of caste, creed, religion, region, ethnicity and language and ever time represent the entire country and not any particular section or influential group. This unholy trend of representing a select group has led to the rise of political parties with agendas catering to one or a mix of these groups. Parties in India also target people who are not in favour of other parties and use them as an asset or votebanks.

7.      They should spell out their stand on labour law reforms and land reforms as these are holding back our progress.

8.      They should have a clear understanding of and unambiguous stand on globalization vs. protectionism, public holding vs. pragmatic privatization capitalism vs. socialism and help in course correction of the government whenever necessary

9.      They should be champions of internal security and have a pragmatic view on refugees, humane and untainted by religion or race. They should steadfastly stand against all political parties instigating unrest, violence, chaos and riots whether they are in opposition or in government.

10.  They should have unambiguous stand on National and International issues which can enhance the image of our country even if it means supporting the government line from time to time. Their voice against terrorism, both external and internal, should not be opportunist but always loud and clear. They should be able to call a spade a spade every time.  

11.  They should be fiercely critical of the government in the parliament and out of it but once a law has been enacted by the parliament despite their opposition they should respect the parliament’s verdict and the people’s mandate.

12.  They should exhibit profound sagacity and exemplary discipline in parliament. They should come prepared and enrich the parliamentary debates and never create nuisance in the well of the house with slogans and placards.

13.  They should refrain from entertaining criminals in their party and not hesitate to throw out the corrupt and the tainted.

For our democracy to succeed every government requires a constructive opposition. With the Congress and most of the opposition parties infected incurably by the dynasty virus exodus of talent from within them is unavoidable. But I do not think all of them need to come out only to join the BJP. This is not serving the purpose of our democracy. We need a new party to oppose the ruling party which is not saddled with the Congress history of corruption and inefficiency. The last time a crusader against corruption tried doing so he became a habitual antagonist and a megalomaniac. It is time saner senses join hands and give the country a credible opposition party.