WORLD POPULATION – CHANGING TRENDS AND IMMIGRATION

The world population has touched 8 billion. We crossed the 7 billion mark just over 12 years ago! The 9 billion mark is estimated to be around 2040. According to a study published in Lancet (https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext ) the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9·73 billion (8·84–10·9) and decline to 8·79 billion (6·83–11·8) in 2100. The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were

1.      India (1·09 billion [0·72–1·71]

2.      Nigeria (791 million [594–1056])

3.      China (732 million [456–1499])

4.      USA (336 million [248–456])

5.      Pakistan (248 million [151–427])

 

Global population rates are nearly impossible to predict, and experts admit it too. Some say there will be overpopulation and some disagree. We'll have to live with this uncertainty. But actually, birth rates are slowing down in recent years, and some even suggest that within a few decades the world population will start to shrink. I will dwell upon this a little later but right now let me share with you some authentic and interesting statistics about our population:

 

How many babies are born a day?

According to The World Counts [ https://www.theworldcounts.com ] between 385,000 and 400,000 babies are born a day. So, each hour, about 16,300 babies arrive into the world! That makes for about 270 babies a minute and between 4 and 5 a second!

 

In the United States alone, an average of 10,687 babies are born a day. Most of them are born in September, while February sees the least amount of births. China makes up 12.5% of the daily global births. That's about 49,400 babies born in China alone each day! In Europe, there are about 11,400 new babies each day. In Australia, there are about 970 newborn babies every day.

 

Birth rates

Africa takes the cake when it comes to fertility rates, with Niger at the top of the list with 47 births per 1,000 people. The next 9 countries on the list of highest birth rates are also African: Angola, Mali, Uganda, Benin, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, Somalia, and Mozambique.

 

How many people die each day?

There are about 164,380 deaths a day. That makes 60,000,000 deaths a year in the world. The country with the highest mortality rate (2015-2020) is Bulgaria, with 15 deaths per 1,000 people. The next 9 countries on the list are also from around Eastern Europe.

 

What is the commonest cause of death?

A standup comedian will say ‘birth’, but on a serious note the 5 top causes of death around the world are:

1. Ischemic heart disease

2. Stroke

3. Lower respiratory infections

4. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

5. Lung cancer

 

This is actually good news since a healthy lifestyle can prevent all of these! This is actually being done and the death rate is going down and the world population is aging.

 

What affects global birth rates?

There is a vast variety of factors affecting childbirth, ranging from access to contraception to women's empowerment. Societal prosperity, poverty, family welfare and healthcare also all have a big impact on birth rates. Then there are fertility factors that are affected by lifestyle and health choices such as smoking, weight, and nutrition. Age and genetics impact fertility as well.

 

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

TFR is birth per woman, the number of children a woman would give birth to in her entire fertile life. If this is less than 2.1 or if a couple is not producing 2 children in any country or State or community then the population starts shrinking. Approximately half the world's population now has replacement-level fertility i.e. 2.1 or below. The change has two elements: a steady rise in life expectancy and a one-off fall in fertility. The combined impact of these changes is to shift the demographic pattern of rich developed countries from pyramids to columns and in some cases to columns tapering at the bottom

 

Female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth. A sustained TFR lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences. Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come.

 

TFR and its social consequences

With 6.74 Niger in Africa tops the TFR list of countries. Somalia, Congo, Mali, Chad, Angola, Burundi and Nigeria all have TFR over 5. They are all in Africa and they are all developing countries and their population is getting younger but their economy cannot employ them. No wonder they fall prey to the growing menace of gang war and terrorism.

 

The lowest TFR countries are Singapore 1.2, Italy, Portugal, 1.3, Spain, Finland, Croatia 1.4, Poland, Canada, Hungary 1.5, Switzerland, Germany, Romania 1.6, Belgium Netherlands and U.K 1.7 and New Zealand, Sweden, Denmark and U.S 1.8. All these are developed economies and as their TFR are below 2.1 and all of them have an aging population. This is going to have an effect on their productivity and their GDP.

 

Thus there is a shifting age structure in many parts of the world, with 2·37 billion (1·91–2·87) individuals older than 65 years and 1·70 billion (1·11–2·81) individuals younger than 20 years, forecasted globally in 2100. By 2050, 151 countries are forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level (TFR <2·1), and 183 are forecasted to have a TFR lower than replacement by 2100. 23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain, are forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 to 2100; China's population is forecasted to decline by 48·0% (−6·1 to 68·4). China is forecasted to become the largest economy by 2035 but in the reference scenario, the USA is forecasted to once again become the largest economy in 2098 because of its demographic dividend.

 

TFR and economic consequences and migrants

The twin issues of TFR below replacement rate and lower death rates has led to a substantial aging of the population  in the affluent North (Europe and North America). This in turn can disrupt labour markets, threaten the fiscal sustainability of pension systems, and slow down economic growth. There are more old people on retirement benefits and less young working hands to run the wheels of economy. This is where the migrants come in. New immigrants increase the size of the labour force, countering its natural decline in the advanced economies of the North, where people are aging out of the workforce at a faster rate than the young are entering. Immigrants also support the demographics of advanced economies because their fertility rate is higher than that of natives. In the United States, the TFR of natives was 1.76 children per woman in 2017, whereas that of immigrants was 2.18. The presence of immigrants helps to keep U.S. fertility at levels closer to the replacement rate. So when politicians like Trump and the far right in Europe lament that immigrants are taking up all the jobs from the blue collared ones in the factories to the white collared ones in Silicon Valley they have to seriously ponder whether their economy will withstand the low TFR.

 

Host countries have traditionally chosen their migrant population and the migrants too have chosen their new hosts (neighbouring country, colonial rulers, thriving economy) but often the circumstances under which the migration occurred decides the true worth of the migrant to a host country. If they are ambitious and highly skilled then every host country welcomes them but if they are displaced by war, famine, natural calamity, terrorism or strife then they find it difficult to find a host as their skill sets are suspect and if not gainfully employed they may cause law and order problems. Religion of the migrants is also a not so subtle issue as many countries with far right governments are not very welcoming toward Muslims as they do not like the change in religious demography being witnessed in many large cities of U.K, France, Germany, Netherlands and Belgium and their social consequences.

 

The bottom line is that only net immigration can ensure population stability or growth in the aging advanced economies of the North, and this will happen only if they promote forward-looking immigration policies that allow larger numbers of immigrants and consider their long-run impact, rather than focusing only on the short-term calculations of their (mostly political) costs. However, low fertility and high immigration do not go hand in hand always. Several of the lowest-fertility countries (mostly in eastern and southern Europe) experienced low immigration rates. Some of these countries, such as Hungary and Poland, have recently elected governments decidedly hostile toward immigrants.

 

The rapid aging of the world's population will bring unprecedented and important changes in the global economic environment, creating unique challenges and opportunities for businesses worldwide. These challenges and opportunities span multiple business areas, including strategy, human resources, cross-cultural management, and marketing, while operating simultaneously at the functional, corporate, and public policy levels nationally and internationally.