CHINA POLICY - NEGOTIATE FROM POSITION OF STRENGTH

The Chinese Foreign Minister is coming to India to discuss the border dispute in Laddakh and Arunachal. Both India and China have strong views about the international border but India is not the only country with which China has a disputed border. You will be astonished to know that China has this dispute, both in land and in sea, with 23 countries! Bhutan, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, South Korea, North Korea, Singapore, Brunei, Nepal, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Malaysia and Russia all have border issues with China. This list is incomplete because we are ignoring Tibet and Taiwan which China claims as its own, occupies the former and continuously threatens the existence of the latter.

 

Perhaps China’s most decisive land dispute is the one with Tibet. In 1950, China enforced a long held claim on the Himalayan country and incorporated it with its own territory. Tibet’s spiritual leader the Dalai Lama and his followers were forced to flee to India, where they have set up a government in exile. As the rich countries are keen to keep China in good humour in order to take the benefits of its vast market place and as the poor countries are falling prey to their debt trap which they choose to call Belt and Road Initiative, Sri Lanka and Pakistan being two perfect examples, China feels that it can have its way with all its neighbours by strong arm tactics.

 

Their largest neighbour Russia has in fact solved its border dispute with China by endeding up yielding the regions of  Argun, Amur, and Ussuri rivers, Damansky Island, Bear Island ( also known as Bolshoi Ussurisky or Heixiazi Dao) and countless other lands. This happened after three border agreements signed in 1991, 1994 and 2005 by Beijing and Moscow but what did Russia get in return is not clear. 

 

China’s bargaining Power

How do you deal with a neighbour like this diplomatically? What makes the situation worse is their bargaining power. They account for 28.7% of global manufacturing output and is India's largest trading partner with bilateral trade well over $100 billion! 37% of electronic components, 45% of consumer durables and 70% of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) come to India from China. If you consider the APIs alone then several antibiotics, antihypertensive and anti-virals and even life saving drugs like Heparin have their origins in China. 

 

As many as 80% of the world's automobile parts are linked to Chinese manufacturing. When this industry goes electric China with its Lithium reserves finds itself in poll position. Chinese battery-maker CATL controls about 30% of the world's EV battery market. Indian automakers are already facing a shortage of semiconductors! China unhesitatingly uses these tools as bargaining points to settle border disputes.

 

The only answer to this blackmail is to be self sufficient - Atmanirbhar. While other countries cannot afford this path because of their aging population, small consumer base and lack of talented work force, India is a predominantly young country and is much better placed to handle this challenge because of the demographic dividend. But this will not happen overnight. We need urgent reforms in both education and manufacturing sectors. Our New Education Policy with its emphasis in Skill development and urgent labour reforms to get out of the communist mindset and reignite the engines of our manufacturing industries are vital.

 

Building a consensus against the expansionist attitudes of China in a bitterly divided world is not easy. Many poor countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, who find themselves in the Chinese debt trap, may be easily arm twisted by China to toe their line. As the second largest economy, particularly when the largest one is confused, unreliable, anything but united domestically with shrinking profile internationally and dealing only in rhetoric is not keen to confront China, the latter enjoys an open goal to score at will. If India has to counter it we need to be strong, both economically and militarily.