TARIFFS - TRADE TACTICS OR TRUMPIAN BLUNDER

 

 

At times it seems Trump doesn't know what he is up to? He is driving the bus of U.S economy through a dense fog, with nil visibility and absent GPS. If it tumbles into the ocean of recession no one will be surprised. Yes, he will succeed to bring a high Richter scale convulsion in the world economic order and decimate globalization once and for all. 

The mighty solitary pole of the unipolar world is travelling down an unsustainable path of large fiscal deficit, spending more than earning, high current account deficit, consuming more than producing and an ever increasing debt to GDP ratio. A course correction was long overdue. His plan is simple - correct current account deficit by imposing tariffs on imports, reduce fiscal deficit by Musk' DOGE hit on wasteful government spending and bring stability to the debt-GDP ratio through a sovereign wealth fund and a reevaluation of gold reserves. The ideas are Clinton's, but a lot more radical leading the U.S towards stagflation and the rest of the world towards recession. 

 

He said the countries of the world, allies and enemies alike, are all out to take advantage of America's goodness and are ripping off the U.S economy by high tariffs, currency manipulation and trade barriers. If I am to quote him he feels America is being "looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friends and foes alike". So, what was his answer? Reciprocal tariffs, which were country specific, the more the trade deficit U.S suffers the higher tariff the offending nation faces. 

 

But will that not increase the cost of virtually everything in the U.S market from toys to clothes to cell phones to cars. America has stopped manufacturing most of them since ages, so does Trump expect these factories to mushroom overnight?

 

Trump thinks that higher tariffs will incentivize foreign and domestic companies to establish factories in the U.S and create employment opportunities. This resonates well with Trump's core vote bank, the blue collared working class Americans that have seen thousands of factories close, and large part of their once industrialized states convert into rust belt with shuttered industries, dying towns and depleting population. However, even if car manufacturers and machine tool and cell phone makers set up factories in America, in the age of AI and robotics are the good old golden days of manufacturing expected to return with bountiful employment opportunities?

 

Another miscalculation which Trump plan has is the U.S will earn $600 billion in tariffs, which will reduce their national debt, which today stands at 123% of their GDP! Lowering imports, because of higher tariffs will also reduce the trade deficit with their trading partners, he argues. Someone should tell him that his ideas will surely lead to worldwide recession and trade wars and Americans will not remain insulated from this impending economic disaster. 

 

All along he was telling in his election rallies and even today he continues to believe that tariffs will cause momentary price hike but the rich will be harmed and the poor will be benefitted! His MAGA supporters have no reason to disbelieve him because the stock market has tumbled, the Wall Street is running for cover and the MAGA crowd is cheering, oblivious of the fact that their own cost of living has gone through the roof! If Wall Street experiences pain long enough, the Main Street will feel it soon. 

 

Trump's class warfare is against the Elite America and the Global Elites. The MAGA followers know it is accompanied by pain, higher costs, shortages and inflation. But, the price is worth paying, they feel. Short term pain is worth long term benefits - more employment and better life! MAGA now has a President who can screw the Wall Street and the Global Elite and stand with working class Joes! Excuse me, but who exactly are Trump and Elon Musk if not global elites?

 

Trump has repeatedly told the blue collared Americans that they are victims of bad trade deals, off-shoring of cheap labour, starving the homeland getting work done at slave wages in China. As if that was not enough, illegal immigrants from Mexico, Central America and Asia are picking up the farm and factory jobs in the mainland at much below mandatory minimum wages.

 

No one except Trump could understand the logic of his varied reciprocal tariffs - 125% on China, 49% on Cambodia, 48% on Laos, 46% on Vietnam, 44% on Sri Lanka, 37% on Bangladesh, 32% on Indonesia and 26% on India! His insanity is best seen when he imposes 10% tariff on Heard &McDonald Island which has only penguins and no human beings. Perhaps he is charging the island for using his first name!

But, hang on; is there a method in his madness? Why is this 90 day pause on imposing tariffs on every country except China? By announcing mega tariffs and then postponing them the US President is acting like the thresher shark which stuns the shoal of sardines with a tail slap, before gobbling them up. Now more than 50 countries are, according to him, ‘licking his ass’ to renegotiate trade deals!

 

The trade war has already started. China has imposed a 84% tit for tat tariff on U.S goods. It looks like the world's biggest buyer U.S, and the world's biggest seller China, who together account for 40% of world trade, do not want to do business with each other. How can this be good for the post globalization global supply chain which turns around these two important cogs?

 

Different countries will be differently affected and right now Canada and Mexico, the two immediate neighbours, whose economy are heavily dependent on American consumers, seem to be facing the worst case scenario. Europe requires U.S to provide it security guarantees that subsidizes its welfare state economies. As their sclerotic thought process will not allow them to have an imaginative understanding with Moscow and lower their defense spending, they will remain easy target of Trump’s blackmail. 

 

Every crisis is an opportunity waiting to be exploited. Brazil, which is only second to the U.S in agro-trade, has an opportunity to sell more beef, soybean, oil and iron ore to China and footwear to the U.S. How will India use this opportunity? Higher tariffs on our competitors in textile and garment industries (China and Bangladesh) and electronics and telecom (Vietnam and Thailand) are opening opportunities for us but pharmaceuticals, agro products,  diamonds and jewellery will require renegotiation. 

 

With top companies of the world, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon,  Netflix and Tesla, the U.S already enjoys a privileged position in world trade, with the best business minds calling America home. The USD is world's reserve currency. This irresponsible trade behaviour raises serious questions about the reliability of the USD as a favoured currency for conducting international trade. By weaponizing the dollar in the form of Sanctions against its strategic enemies, the world is already looking for an alternative. China, Russia, India and a host of other countries, almost 45% of the world’s population can and are trading in alternative currencies. China-Asian bilateral trade is already over $900 billion and with higher tariffs in America these intra regional trade options will become more frequent. 

 

Trump wants to leave behind a spectacular legacy, but a long standing recession in the U.S and in the rest of the world will surely not be anything worth boasting. Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of U.S recession to 35% and J.P Morgan Chase has predicted a 60% chance of global recession this year. High inflation is a distinct possibility and if the Fed raises rates, economic slowdown may become unavoidable. Economist John Kenneth Galbraith once said "when all else fails, immortality can be assured through spectacular errors". We are unfortunately witnessing one, and I am afraid, we have not yet reached the climax of this story!

REMEMBERING PROF. V.S. DAVE BY HIS LECTURE ON PARESTHESIA IN THE EXTREMITIES

 

The Neurosurgery Department in King George’s Medical College was always amongst the best teaching units of our Ammeter. It was started by Prof. P.N. Tandon way back in 1961, when just a handful of Neurosurgery teaching units existed in India. Prof. P.N. Tandon later moved to All India Institute of Medical Sciences. As Neurosurgery was a part of the Department of Surgery, its Head of the Department Prof. S.C. Mishra then handpicked Prof. V.S. Dave from Mumbai to run the new Department in K.G.M.C. in 1967. Prof. Dave was the gentlest of souls I ever came across. He was so soft spoken that in my residency days, even in his rounds we, the resident team, could hardly hear him. Only when he had to discuss a finding on the Carotid Angiograms, which we residents used to perform on all head injury patients, could he be heard teaching his residents. He was invariably dressed in white and always wore a starched white apron and was extremely kind to patients and their relatives. Though Neurosurgery those days had very serious patients and was very busy, he and his 2^nd. In Command, Dr. D.K. Chabbra worked tirelessly without looking at watch. His dedication and his diligence were infectious and easily trickled down his team.

Prof. Dave and his team performed all kinds of Cranial and Spinal Surgery. Pitutary surgery, ICP Monitoring, Minimally Invasive Cranial and Spinal Neurosurgery, Brain Tumor Surgery, Spinal Tumor Surgery, Brain and Spinal Trauma Management, Surgery of CV Junction Anomalies, Neuro Vascular Surgery, Micro Neurosurgery, Pediatric Neurosurgery (Meningocele, Encephalocele, Hydrocephalus etc.) were all performed in the Neurosurgery Department. Skull base surgery was his speciality and he excelled in it. You have to appreciate that those were pre CT Scan and pre MRI days and a good clinical examination and a carotid angiogram were the only two means of arriving at a diagnosis.

Prof. Dave used to stay in Rana Pratap Marg near the Botanical Garden and could reach the sick patient’s bedside within 10 minutes of a telephone call. He was always available for everybody. Even when there was an anaesthetic accident in the Ophthalmology OR, a request from his Ophthalmology colleague was enough to find him by his side within minutes. Availability was his hallmark and he was accessible to the junior most member of the resident team. He had a special bond with Dr. D.K. Chabbra and the latter could interpret his gestures and facial expressions and do exactly as the Professor wished. I have introduced you to Prof. D.K. Chabbra in one of my previous blogs: https://surajitbrainwaves.blogspot.com/2020/06/remembering-prof-d-k-chabra-today.html

Prof. Dave’s son Ajay is an ophthalmologist of repute.

 

I have been able to salvage a lecture on Peripheral Neuropathy or Paresthesia in the extremities, which was delivered to our class by Prof. V.S. Dave. 

Paresthesia is the tingling sensation or numbness, or sensation similar to pins and needles, experienced in the extremities – arms and hands or thighs, legs and feet. Often, as pins and needles, it is simply a benign consequence of undue pressure being placed on the body parts in question, such as leaning on one arm or crossing your legs for a long time. It is resolved as quickly as it appears when you remove the offending pressure, causing only mild discomfort, but no pain.  

The very same sensation can occur without any obvious pressure being applied. This paresthesia may be severe, episodic or even chronic (never ending). If this happens and is coupled with other symptoms, like

·        Pain

·        Itchiness

·        Numbness

·        Muscle wasting

then the tingling might be an indication of nerve damage. Such damage is called peripheral neuropathy, affecting nerves that are far away from the brain and spinal cord, usually in the hands and feet.  There are three categories of causation.  

1. Diabetes

Many people who are diabetic, the elderly in particular, suffer from peripheral neuropathy. There are in excess of 100 different types of peripheral neuropathy. In time, the condition worsens when left untreated, resulting in reduced mobility and possibly even disability. The major cause of peripheral neuropathy, in around 30% of cases, is diabetes. Peripheral neuropathy is therefore considered to be the first sign of diabetes. 

Since peripheral neuropathy, the underlying cause of paresthesia, in 30% of cases is a sign of diabetes, it is very important that if your patient has a history of prolonged paresthesia monitor his/her blood sugar levels.   Some common Peripheral Neuropathies in Diabetes are;

·        Peripheral symmetric neuropathy: This affects the feet and hands and is the most common form of neuropathy.

·        Autonomic neuropathy: This affects the nerves that control involuntary functions of the body, such as digestion, urination, or heart rate.

·        Proximal neuropathy: This affects the muscles of the hips, thighs, or buttocks and is also known as diabetic amyotrophy.

·        Focal neuropathy: This affects a single nerve, usually in the head, torso, or leg.

 

2. Idiopathic Cause 

In another 30% of cases of peripheral neuropathy, where the cause is not diabetes, no cause can be found, and they are thus labeled ‘idiopathic’. This may be the case more commonly in over the age of 60, and it progresses slowly. Patients often resort to over-the-counter pain medication for mild pain, but for severe pain, judicious use of NSAIDs and anti-depressants are prescribed. Therapeutic footwears can also be acquired which reduce symptoms.   

3. Unrelated causes

The remaining 40% of cases besides diabetic and idiopathic causes of peripheral neuropathy contain a wide variety of unrelated causes. However, the disease is very well-researched, and most of the time it is possible to diagnose the root cause of  paresthesia efficiently.   Besides paresthesia​, other nerve related condition are:

1.      Neuralgia: This is a potent stabbing or burning pain that occurs right along the nerve that has become damaged. It has many possible causes, such as shingles, diabetes, or multiple sclerosis.

2.      Radiculopathy: this is a disease of the spinal nerve roots. It can produce pain, numbness, and weakness at the spine area. 

3.      Carpal Tunnel: a syndrome of the hand’s median nerve, which has become compressed. It is located on your palm.  I have discussed Carpal Tunnel Syndrome in one of my previous blogs: https://surajitbrainwaves.blogspot.com/2022/04/carpel-tunnel-syndrome.html

4.      Mini Stroke (transient ischemic attack): unlike a stroke, which kills brain cells, this ITA, mini-stroke, does not. It does, however, cause similar symptoms to a stroke, and is the result of blood flow to the brain stopping for a period of time. This is considered a medical emergency that may well require urgent attention. I have a blog on Stroke and Mini Stroke: https://surajitbrainwaves.blogspot.com/2022/01/stroke-killer-mini-stroke-warning.html

5.      Spinal Cord Injury: This is a very serious type of injury, which may drastically alter your patient’s life condition and quality. It too will require urgent medical attention.  

6.      Other common causes include, but are not limited, to:

·        Cervical Spondylitis

·        Stroke (urgent)

·        Ulnar Nerve Palsy 

·        Panic Disorder

·        Intracerebral Hemorrhage (urgent) 

·        Guillain-Barre Syndrome (urgent) 

·        Stenosis of spinal canal

·        Spinal Bone Fracture

·        Alcohol Abuse / Alcoholism

·        Frostbite (urgent)

·        Vitamin Deficiency

 

 

Diagnoses

History: In order to be absolutely thorough, you will require a complete medical history of how the paresthesia or neuralgia started. Since medication is often considered a cause of tingling, history of any such medications, or vaccinations would be important. A detailed history of any infections or injuries the patient might have sustained may be vital.  A habit of asking a set of questions may be of help to avoid missing the diagnosis:

·        Numbness or tingling with no obvious cause

·        A pain in the neck, forearm or fingers

·        Unusually frequent urination

·        Numbness in legs which worsens on walking

·        History of a rash

·        History of dizziness, a muscle spasm, or something else unusual.

·        Weakness in limbs interfering with normal mobility

·        History of recent head, neck or back injury

·        Inability to control arms or leg movement

·        Lost bladder or bowel control

·        Feel confused and have lost consciousness for a

·        Speech is slurring

·        Vision is affected

Physical examination: A detailed examination of the patient, not restricting oneself to the effected limb, is vital. Which spinal levels are involved or which peripheral nerve is compressed and where is important to document. Any scar in the anatomical line of a nerve or any local tenderness should ne documented.

Investigations: Blood tests CBC, electrolyte levels, thyroid functions, toxicology screening and nerve conduction studies are required to establish the diagnosis. Perhaps a lumbar puncture and CSF examination may be needed. X-rays and angiograms, may clinch the diagnosis.   

 

Treatment

Treatments will be related to the diagnosis made of the cause of your paresthesia. If the peripheral nerve cells have not died they will regenerate and the patient will return to normal. For diabetes, good blood sugar control can slow down and reduce the progression of diabetic neuropathy. Those who, for example, have a vitamin deficiency can have their diet supplemented with more balance, which will also correct their peripheral neuropathy.    Maintaining an optimal weight by adhering to a regimen of diet and exercises and drastically cutting down alcohol and tobacco consumption will help. .If the cause of tingling is surgical like cervical spondylitis, carpel tunnel syndrome or other compression neuropathies then prompt surgery is indicated before muscle wasting sets in.

 

Thus ended Prof. Dave’s lecture on Paresthesia in the extremities. He would gently smile and quietly walk out of the lecture theatre with his Senior Residents and continue with his morning patient rounds. No fuss, no fanfare, always gentle and always held in very high esteem, Prof. Dave was a true Georgian role model. He was the senior most professor of Surgery in our Department but he refused to become the Head of the Department as he felt that would interfere with his true passion of teaching and training Neurosurgery residents and treating Neurosurgery patients. With no CT Scans, no MRIs, no neuroendoscope and with very primitive operating microscope, the Professor could do wonders by his sheer dedication to Neurosurgery and devotion to his professional duties.

FEELING GLOOMY AND DEPRESSED? THIS CAN HELP

 

Depression is a common mental health condition that causes a persistent feeling of sadness and changes in how you think, sleep, eat and act. Most of us see depression as a phenomenon caused mainly by various negative events we have experienced and unfortunate circumstances that make us feel down and gloomy. However, there are a variety of everyday causes of depression that most people ignore and that actually affect the quality of our lives in a significant way. 

Everybody feels gloomy once in a while, and that is normal. But when a gloomy mood lasts for weeks and you feel like doing nothing and you lose pleasure in your normal daily activities, the gloom gradually turns into a depression. The difference between gloom and depression is sometimes difficult, but it is mainly determined by the duration and intensity of the sad feelings.

It can start with feeling down, worrying a lot, lots of negative thoughts, less pleasure and interest in day to day activities and monotony. Left unattended it can result in concentration or memory problems, irritability, disturbance in diet, sleep, easy fatigability and vague physical problems such as headache, stomach ache or muscle pain. A psychotherapist, who is both a patient and now a friend, recently visited me and I tried to probe why is this getting so common amongst the younger folks too, as I felt they are supposed to be the fountainhead of enthusiasm, zeal and zest! 

So, as my friend brought out, if you feel unexplained sadness, are overwhelmed with constant negative thoughts, and have a host of other symptoms that indicate that you may be depressed, it is time to check if you are getting into habits that have an adverse effect on the mind. These are avoidable and so will help you to come out of a depressed mood.

 

1. Excessive use of technology

Smartphones, tablets, televisions, and computers - all of them pass our time pleasantly and allow us to consume information whenever and wherever we wish. However, they may act as a double-edged sword and may encourage symptoms of depression. The emergence of these symptoms was explained by the fact that multitasking, such as watching TV and reading news on a smartphone simultaneously, overloads the brain with too much information to work properly, leading to exhaustion and ultimately depression.

 

2. Poor nutrition

Our dietary habits have a direct impact on our overall health. But while many choose to focus on negative effects such as being overweight, our food also has the power to change our mood completely. In a study published in the British Journal of Psychiatry, participants that ate more processed foods had more symptoms of depression than their counterparts who avoided doing so. Another study found that participants whose diets were low in fish suffered more depression than their counterparts, probably due to lack of omega-3 fatty acids. These acids are commonly associated with regulating levels of serotonin, a neurotransmitter in the brain that affects our mood. 

 

3. Going to sleep late

Sometimes all we want to do at the end of a hard and busy day is to zone out and watch TV, spend time at a restaurant or engage in a favorite hobby. However, this may leave you sluggish and inattentive  next morning, although you spent that ‘me’ time at rest and relaxation. The reason for this is that a severe lack of sleep disrupts the functioning of the brain and significantly harms attention, concentration, and memory. Thus, apart from the sense of exhaustion that will accompany you throughout the day, the great effort to maintain normal functioning will only trigger stronger feelings of frustration and anxiety. 

 

4. Keeping pessimistic company

It is very possible that the negative criticism and comments from the circle of people closest to you come from their genuine desire to provide you with good advice. However, as in many other cases, even negative and pessimistic feelings should be taken at the right dosage. Spending many hours together with a negative person may change our worldview for the worse, make us identify with the negative thoughts of the other person and compare them to many events in our lives. This doesn’t mean you have to write off people who are close to you, just try to talk to them about the fact that negative conversations don’t benefit you, and perhaps you will make them see the world in a much more positive way.  I would always try to surround myself with ‘a circle of geniues’ who are smarter than me and inspire me by their words and deeds.

 

5. Spending too much time in a busy and overcrowded environment

Life in the center of the city has many advantages such as proximity to many restaurants, public transportation availability, various public facilities, vibrant nightlife, many employment opportunities and more. However, the speed and noise of life that characterizes large cities may also create a great deal of mental stress, manifested in symptoms of anxiety and depression. So, despite your great love for these areas, try to spend a little more time in public parks and gardens close to your home where you can connect to nature and enjoy some peace and quiet. Give your five senses a drill to complete

1.      See 5colours in nature for 5 seconds each

2.      Smell 4 fragrances in nature for 5 seconds each

3.      Hear 3 sounds in nature for 5 seconds each

4.      Touch 2 textures in nature for 5 seconds each

5.      Taste 1 object in nature for 5 seconds

This is my prescription for combating the fast pace city life induced depression.

 

6. Isolating yourself for a long time

After a busy day of chores, it is only natural that we feel the need to isolate ourselves and get the peace and quiet we craved throughout the day. There are many benefits of having a little quality time with ourselves because it allows us to solve problems more efficiently and process the vast amount of information we were exposed to throughout the day. Nevertheless, it is recommended that this habit not be overdone, and spending quality time with children, family and friends still remains the best relaxant and anti-depressant. As part of our coping with the challenges of everyday life, it is important that we strengthen our existing friendships and create new relationships that will enable us to share and express our feelings. Being alone is surely benefician but being lonely is not. To read my blog, please click: https://surajitbrainwaves.blogspot.com/2023/04/being-alone-and-being-lonly-are-two.html

 

7. Inaction is dangerous

Although we all like to be idle in front of the TV screen from time to time, we also want to know how to set some boundaries and challenge ourselves in a variety of tasks and hobbies. Doing different tasks, even those that don’t interest us, gives us a sense of meaning, distracts us from negative thoughts, and improves our mood significantly. Even having a strict and consistent exercise regimen is an excellent anti-depressant, due to the various chemicals, such as endorphins, released in our brains which promote a sense of calm and tranquility.

 

 8. Not enough daylight exposure

This is something I experienced while working in the U.K. Long stretch of cold, damp and cloudy days, with no trace of the sun, are most depressing. Our busy lives can often have us sitting in front of a screen for hours together, sometimes without even having a short outdoor break. Not experiencing bright daylight can bring the gloomy mood that overcomes you out of nowhere. Apart from our natural need to get some fresh air and clear our head, sun exposure accelerates the production of serotonin, a neurotransmitter in the brain that plays a central role in emotional regulation. In addition, daylight stimulates the production of vitamin D essential to brain health that allows us to stay sharp and logical.

 

9. Taking various medications

Just as physical side effects like nausea, vomiting and cramps, many drugs have psychological side effects too. Thus, drugs such as oral contraceptives, and anti-epileptic drugs may have associated symptoms of depression and anxiety. Corticosteroids may conversely give a sense of wellbeing, as do the mood elevators.

 

10. Poor posture

Our posture conveys what we feel, and shows whether we are self-confident, scared, sad and so on. Our posture has a direct effect on us emotionally; people who walked with their backs bent, shoulders slumped forward and a slightly bowed head, often look and feel depressed and, one walking straight looks happy and confident. Yes, looks can be deceptive, and the guy with slumped shoulder may turn out to be happier, but mostly that is not the case. Our bodies seldom fail to tell what the brain is feeling.

 

11. Monotony

This is exactly what precipitates middle age crisis. We end up executing the same daily routine days, week and months together and this monotony leads to depression. We start wondering whether this grind is truly worth it. And if this effort of our’s goes unappreciated, it further accentuates depression. So doing newer things, deviating from the routine, expanding our horizons and going out of comfort zone brings new thrill to life.

 

Depression is much more serious a problem than what we have tried to describe, and one must never hesitate to seek professional opinion regarding its management. Failing to do so may affect the health and wellbeing of not only the sufferer but also his / her loved ones.

HOW CAN INDIA DEVELOP WITHOUT WOMEN IN WORKFORCE

 

As the President of G 20, one of the most remarkable commitments India made was to promote women led development. This, in the entire developing world, will ensure women empowerment. As countries that have embraced gender diversity in decision making have witnessed better economic and financial performance, this is vital for India if we aim to become a developed country by the year 2047. Though we knew it all along IMF's Geeta Gopinath emphasized it once again that India's economic aspirations can't be met without healthier women labour force participation. According to a research conducted by Azim Premji University in 2023 only 17% of urban women are in paid workforce and the situation in the rural hinterland is far worse.

 

Why are women important at workplace?

When a group of researchers Ratna Sahai, Benedict Clements and Huy Nguyen sampled the number of women in parliament of120 countries they witnessed that their higher share and senior positions ensured higher spending on health and education. Social outcomes like Infant Mortality Rate and Maternal Mortality Rate came down. Nobel laureate Esther Doflo, working in Indian villages found that female leadership in villages positively influenced the aspirations of impressionable adolescent girls and broke gender stereotypes.

 

Banks in India have witnessed that higher number of women in managerial positions resulted in lower Non Productive Assets, (NPAs), loan default and improved their financial stability. Researchers have found that having even a single woman in the board of a NSE listed company resulted in lower debt equity ratio and higher profitability. 

 

Despite these overwhelming evidences of the benefits of including women in the work force, only a dismal number of them are included. Our government keeps on reminding us that we are the fifth largest economy but what it does not say is we are there despite a only 18% contribution from our female work force. Can you imagine where we would have been had we not languished at 129th position in the gender gap ladder which has only 146 countries? Women employment and economic prosperity of a nation are closely related. If half the population is dismally represented in the workforce of a nation then it has no hope to thrive and prosper.

 

What are they doing with their education?

Right from school leaving exams we see the girls performing better than the boys at every step - higher pass percentage, higher marks, and in more numbers among the toppers. Then why is this educational superiority not being represented in the workforce? Why their labour force participation is is only 32.7% (25.6 crores or 256 million)! What are they doing with their education? The conservatives would say that they are building the future India in their homes, but that is being done even by working mothers! So, the obvious answer is that they are not getting their due share of opportunities. They cannot keep on doing unpaid and unsung jobs in homes and fields and waste their talents and skills (see the India Today pie chart).

 

Even after 77 years of Independence they comprise only 14% of Lok Sabha, 15.2% of Rajya Sabha, 8% of Union ministers, 14% of sitting High Court judges and 4% of Supreme Court judges. Only around 11% of IAS officers are women. So if this is their representation in the decision making stratosphere is it at all surprising that only 5-8% of central government jobs and 25-30% of state governments jobs are with women? If they are smart enough to treat the diseased and the infirm, if they are intelligent enough to send satellites to the space and beyond, if they are creative enough to produce award winning films and literature surely they must be good enough for a larger share of government jobs!

 

If the society could not address this gender discrimination in 77 years it is time to do so by legislative means. Reserving 30% of parliamentary seats are not enough, this should extend to government jobs and it should be nothing less than 50%. The private sector, the administration and the judiciary too should be encouraged to do the same. More women in the system will make it safer for women. When they start contributing to their fullest ability, our success in nation building as well as economy is assured.

Two Road-bumps

It turns out that women in our country encounter two road-bumps in their path to employment success - marriage and childbirth. So, are women in developed countries and even in the developing Asian Tiger nations not getting married or having children? How come they can cope with it and our ladies can't? The problem lies in our mindset and in our societal structure.

 

We were hoping that education would empower women to ride smoothly over the marriage road-bump with greater household bargaining power. We were also expecting that more educated husbands would be less conservative in social attitude and be a more active parent and homemaker. But except in a very small section, mostly professionals, this has not happened. Parents are still bringing up their sons and daughters differently and that is giving them a wrong start.

Sadly India has not seen women in workforce rise at anywhere near the pace of their rise in education. Their window of employment opportunity and economic freedom is fleetingly small - from ending education to getting married and then their talent and education is never being used for nation building. For far too long the society has indoctrinated them with the notion that their family is the brick by which this nation will be built and their job is to take good care of the family, the vital unit of the nation. This cannot be their sole responsibility and a much active role in nation building awaits them.

 

Why are women not in workforce in India?

Higher levels if harassment, threats, violence, patriarchal norms and societal stereotypes keep women out of workforce. Even in village panchayats which have women heads, the decisions are often taken by male family members. Only 42% of women in the latest PLFS survey work as against 79% of men. Unpaid household duties consume most of their time. After marriage and particularly after childbirth, their numbers reduce drastically in workforces and only a few end up reaching senior positions. If the mother-in-law is a working lady then the daughter-in-law faces less resistance at home to work.

 

But the disproportionate burden of work they carry at home prevent them from taking up regular jobs for which they are no less qualified. If a large proportion of their time is spent on tending for the family, making endless cups of tea, cooking hot snacks and real mega meals comprising of two sabjis, fish, egg or chicken, daal, raita, pickle, chutney, papadams, chaas, ghee jaggery, rice and hot phulkas served straight from oven to the plate, then where is the time left for a proper and productive job? How can she make her contribution to nation building? As if that was not enough, the son's homework, the daughter's dance classes, and overlooking the work of the gardener, the household bai, the safai karmchari, the washerwomen, the driver are all her duties. It seems the system is so designed in order to keep her entangled in non productive work 24x7 and idolize her homemaker status in the most futile way.

 

Unsafe work environment also keep women away from work. Unfavourable working hours, improper lighting, unsafe resting space, and unkind and irresponsible colleagues make them subjects of workplace harassment. Her social status is not a security as was witnessed in the rape and murder of the female doctor in Kolkata’s R.G. Kar Medical College recently. Considering the rape of a trainee doctor in a renowned medical institution of one of the busiest metropolitan city of our country, is it difficult to understand why so few women venture out to work? Can you imagine how many chains and hurdles the poor doctor had to break through to be on night duty? As if her assault and murder was not enough the patriarchy spoke through the Principal of the institution when he said the victim was irresponsible! Rape is the most heinous crime and are the worst fault lines in our civilization and if it goes unpunished how many girls will dare to come out and work?

 

Economists are stumped

Over nearly two decades, India's female labor participation rate looks like a steady downward curve, from 32% in 2005, to 19% in 2021 – the most recent year for which statistics are available. As India develops, women are dropping out of its workforce – in record numbers. This is happening among rich and poor women, in urban and rural areas – across social class, religion and age groups. In fact, it's happening even among poor rural women – who might need a paycheck the most. Economists cite six factors that may help explain this economic mystery: prosperity, education, social norms, safety concerns, problems with statistical measurement and a lack of decent and productive employment.

1.      Prosperity: As household incomes rise, women are dropping out of India's workforce simply because they can afford to. Many no longer have to do back-breaking tasks in agriculture or other manual labor. Women move in and out of employment, depending on their family's needs, working only when it becomes difficult to survive on single income of the husband alone.

2.      Education: They are staying longer in schools and colleges and so are counted out of work for that period of time, when compared to the previous generation. This skews the work force data mostly just for women in their teens and early twenties but doesn't explain what's happening across all age groups

3.      Social Norms: Indians still have conservative ideas about a woman's role in the family. We have discussed this extensively, how they are prioritizing unpaid household labor over profession.

4.     Safety concerns: A massive wave of migration out of India's countryside has unintended consequences for women. Often it's a solo male worker who migrates first, leaving women and children in their ancestral village – where the wife effectively becomes a single parent. She has less flexibility to seek paid work outside the home. When women do migrate to urban areas, they often have safety concerns. They may not know their neighbors as well as they did in their ancestral villages. And if they get jobs, they may have to commute long distances, or at night – on public transit that's often unreliable and unsafe. Violence against women is exacerbated by privatization. Take Uber, for example! It's not an affordable option for a majority of workers, but is it safe every time?

5.      Statistics may not tell the truth: Women not working dose not always mean that women are not earning. They are often replacing the lack of income with economic activities,  which are generally not counted as work – like collecting firewood, working in the agricultural sector, taking care of cattle, making milk products, pickle and papadam.

6.     Lack of decent employment: This is an issue about the ability, or lack thereof , of an economy to create decent, productive employment that's appropriate and accessible for women. She has to take care of her family and then find time for work. So, her choice of suitable work gets limited. Weak labor laws don't help. India has no national minimum wage or law governing overtime and so they easily get exploited and leave the workforce.

So this may be one of India's biggest challenges, as its population grows. Not only to create jobs for all of its workers, but to create the conditions that'll allow its female workers to take them. They constitute 49% of our population. You cannot ignore them and progress.