It is difficult to put the finger exactly on when the tectonic shift in world politics from left to right started bur undoubtedly the re-election of Narendra Modi in India, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Erdogan in Turkey, Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel and the Conservatives in Australia established it on firm footing. In country after country in Latin America, where the Left ruled until recently, igniting hopes for a Left resurgence elsewhere as well, we now have Right-wing governments. In fact the electoral debacle of Trump seems to be an aberration to this rule.
The European Story
Europe is also decisively swinging to the right. A combination of high inflation, declining living standards, and eroding liberal values of openness together constitute a perfect cocktail to wake the masses out of their usual comfortable European way of life. The Ukraine war and the resultant energy crisis have further caused a waning of the popular trust in the left leaning liberal governments. The Brexit verdict in the U.K in 2016 was an early pointer of this left to right shift in Europe. It was further cemented by Marine Le Pen’s Far-Right party almost stealing the thunder of a re-elected President Emmanuel Macron’s Centrist alliance. What France narrowly averted then has now become a reality in Italy where Giorgia Meloni’s Fratteli D’Italia (Brothers of Italy)has succeeded in uprooting the left leaning government. In Germany too the right wing is no longer a fringe element and the Alternative for Germany party has managed 12% of the popular vote share. So soon they may become the King Maker if not the King!
The Hungarian President Viktor Orban leads the European Right with his Fidesz party getting 59% of the popular vote. Close to it is the Law & Justice Party of Poland with 50% of vote share. Recently in Italy Fratteli D’Italia managed to secure 30% of the popular vote and will soon have its Prime Minister. Sweden Democrats represent the right in the Nordic country and it has 21% of the vote share. Their Nordic neighbour Finland has seen the right wing Finns Party get 20% of the popular votes. Other right wing parties like Freedom Party of Austria with 17%, National Rally in France and Vox in Spain with 15%, Flemish Interest in Belgium with 12% and Party of Freedon in Netherlands with 11% of votes are not very far behind and certainly not annoying fringe elements any more.
So why did Europe make this sudden right turn? The answer is ‘Economy’. An economic crisis has been gripping the world economy since 2008. There have been occasional signs of a mild recovery from it, but no sooner than these signs appear, the world economy once more gets plunged into a new crisis. It is in this context of crisis and unemployment that there is a shift to the Right all across the world. The liberal bourgeois parties have generally been in denial mode when it comes to the crisis and the consequent unemployment. The Right at least recognises the distress caused by unemployment, though it blames not the system but the immigrants for it, and wants to put curbs on immigration. Across Europe the far right parties have seized on the anti-immigrant sentiments, and as immigration is mostly from war ravaged Islamic countries, anti-Islamic sentiments too boost their vote share. Since within the EU, there has to be free migration of workers across countries, many on the Right are also anti-EU.
The Indian story
Modi came to power in 2014 on a “development” agenda. The fact is that the growth rate had come down during UPA-II. The promise of neo-liberalism improving everyone’s lot was beginning to fade. Policy paralysis in the government further damaged its credibility. Corruption and nepotism were plaguing India’s growth story and a person with a 12 years history of steering the state of Gujarat out of a similar rot was given the opportunity to paint his growth story on a larger and national canvas now. What baffled the Left and Left of Centre Thinkdom (LLCT) is his government proved to be, contrary to popular expectation, far more left leaning than their own government. Not only it has been able to feed 800 million Covid affected people since March 2020 but has successfully immunized 1.4 billion Indians against Covid, provided houses to live to 500 million poor, given piped drinking water, electricity and motorable roads to all villages and replaced the firewood burning in the kitchen with cooking gas in 90 million homes. So the Liberal slur that no matter how successful the Right may be in the short-run in mobilizing the people around a false or divisive agenda, it is basically incapable of leading them out of their current state of unemployment and desperation, is not sticking to Modi.
The Brazilian story
In many countries conservative civil society has had a key role in shaping domestic events. In Brazil, a broad coalition of conservative groups helped push President Dilma Rouseff out of power in 2016, amid protests about widespread corruption. The rapid rise of Brazil's new far-right leader Jair Bolsonaro may have surprised some observers but it did not come out of thin air. His success follows years of support from powerful social movements. One of the groups behind Jair Bolsonaro's campaign, the Free Brazil Movement, has three million followers on Facebook and more than one million subscribers on YouTube. Such developments have seen right-wing civil society move into a space that was, until recently, dominated by liberal and progressive causes. It is likely to mean a fierce rivalry between groups on the left and right as they battle to be heard not only by politicians but by society as a whole.
Civil Societies and Charismatic Leaders
Politicians are important. Modi, Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Le Pen are all charismatic leaders leading this left to right swing. This right-wing populism is seen as being brought about by new political parties or charismatic leaders. Think of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban - who presents himself as the defender of his country and Europe against Muslim migrants. Giorgia Meloni, the Italian PM elect is another firebrand leader who never shies away from calling a spade a spade and her opinion on abortion, family and LGBTQ rights are known to all, her supporters as well as her opponents. These leaders are popular and have large following in Social Media. Modi remains the most popular politician with 71% acceptance rating. The European Parliament does not recognize Hungary as a full democracy but calls it a ‘hybrid regime’ or ‘electoral autocracy’. Neither the Hungarian President nor his electorate care two hoots about the EU’s opinion.
There is a perceptible change in the cvil societies the world over and the liberals have failed to gauge this change .For years, civil society has tended to be seen as liberal: supportive of human rights, democratic reform and the protection of minorities. Often, it is still these "progressive" causes that appeal to younger activists. But today, civil society involves an increasingly diverse mix of people and political goals, with those on the right gaining traction. Many of these conservative groups share a belief in "traditional" values - those often associated with - religious beliefs, community, national identity, protection against immigration, and support for the family unit and so on.
Liberals are missing the point
Liberal bourgeois analysts, instead of seeing the commonality between these various parties and movements all across Europe, Latin America and Asia, tend to take a fragmented picture of reality. They divide European parties into pro-EU and anti-EU, or pro-immigration and anti-immigration; likewise, they see Modi’s victory as an Indian phenomenon, linked to Hindutva, but unconnected to what is happening in Europe. They fail to fit Bolsonaro, Erdogan, Netanyahu and Trump together with India and Europe and see the bigger picture. Such liberal fragmentation is carefully done in order to insulate their liberal values which have failed to produce jobs, provide development and prevent hunger. Liberals are also accused of cherry picking issues that suit them. After the painful death of George Floyd under the knees of a white police officer they ignited the world with their 'Black Lives Matter' protests to embarrass the right wing Trump administration but today after Masha Amini's brutal killing over hijab and the merciless crackdown on Iranian women that is still going on, the liberals of the world are quiet or at best have issued tepid put-down because after the Ukraine war they need Iranian oil more than ever before. All agitations are by Iranian expatriates but liberal governments in the west are shamefully silent.
In a paper in 2018 Mr Thomas Piketty noted that elites in Britain, France and America were split between intellectuals who backed left-of-centre parties—he dubbed them the “Brahmin left”—and business people who preferred right-wing ones (the “merchant right”). He showed that the educated had a left of centre inclination and the uneducated blue collar was right of centre. Today the green parties lure educated voters, and nativist parties attract the less educated. The educated unemployed, the ambitious youth, the inspired new voters are also attracted by the charismatic right wing leaders. Such a coalition of diverse electorate makes the rise of right-wing populists like Modi, Erdogan and Bolsonaro possible. The left-of-centre technocrats like Emmanuel Macron or Justin Trudeau—look like a historical inevitability. The left has to urgently reclaim its relevance, but for that it has to acknowledge its shortcomings first.
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