WORLD POPULATION – CHANGING TRENDS AND IMMIGRATION

The world population has touched 8 billion. We crossed the 7 billion mark just over 12 years ago! The 9 billion mark is estimated to be around 2040. According to a study published in Lancet (https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext ) the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9·73 billion (8·84–10·9) and decline to 8·79 billion (6·83–11·8) in 2100. The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were

1.      India (1·09 billion [0·72–1·71]

2.      Nigeria (791 million [594–1056])

3.      China (732 million [456–1499])

4.      USA (336 million [248–456])

5.      Pakistan (248 million [151–427])

 

Global population rates are nearly impossible to predict, and experts admit it too. Some say there will be overpopulation and some disagree. We'll have to live with this uncertainty. But actually, birth rates are slowing down in recent years, and some even suggest that within a few decades the world population will start to shrink. I will dwell upon this a little later but right now let me share with you some authentic and interesting statistics about our population:

 

How many babies are born a day?

According to The World Counts [ https://www.theworldcounts.com ] between 385,000 and 400,000 babies are born a day. So, each hour, about 16,300 babies arrive into the world! That makes for about 270 babies a minute and between 4 and 5 a second!

 

In the United States alone, an average of 10,687 babies are born a day. Most of them are born in September, while February sees the least amount of births. China makes up 12.5% of the daily global births. That's about 49,400 babies born in China alone each day! In Europe, there are about 11,400 new babies each day. In Australia, there are about 970 newborn babies every day.

 

Birth rates

Africa takes the cake when it comes to fertility rates, with Niger at the top of the list with 47 births per 1,000 people. The next 9 countries on the list of highest birth rates are also African: Angola, Mali, Uganda, Benin, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, Somalia, and Mozambique.

 

How many people die each day?

There are about 164,380 deaths a day. That makes 60,000,000 deaths a year in the world. The country with the highest mortality rate (2015-2020) is Bulgaria, with 15 deaths per 1,000 people. The next 9 countries on the list are also from around Eastern Europe.

 

What is the commonest cause of death?

A standup comedian will say ‘birth’, but on a serious note the 5 top causes of death around the world are:

1. Ischemic heart disease

2. Stroke

3. Lower respiratory infections

4. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

5. Lung cancer

 

This is actually good news since a healthy lifestyle can prevent all of these! This is actually being done and the death rate is going down and the world population is aging.

 

What affects global birth rates?

There is a vast variety of factors affecting childbirth, ranging from access to contraception to women's empowerment. Societal prosperity, poverty, family welfare and healthcare also all have a big impact on birth rates. Then there are fertility factors that are affected by lifestyle and health choices such as smoking, weight, and nutrition. Age and genetics impact fertility as well.

 

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

TFR is birth per woman, the number of children a woman would give birth to in her entire fertile life. If this is less than 2.1 or if a couple is not producing 2 children in any country or State or community then the population starts shrinking. Approximately half the world's population now has replacement-level fertility i.e. 2.1 or below. The change has two elements: a steady rise in life expectancy and a one-off fall in fertility. The combined impact of these changes is to shift the demographic pattern of rich developed countries from pyramids to columns and in some cases to columns tapering at the bottom

 

Female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth. A sustained TFR lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences. Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come.

 

TFR and its social consequences

With 6.74 Niger in Africa tops the TFR list of countries. Somalia, Congo, Mali, Chad, Angola, Burundi and Nigeria all have TFR over 5. They are all in Africa and they are all developing countries and their population is getting younger but their economy cannot employ them. No wonder they fall prey to the growing menace of gang war and terrorism.

 

The lowest TFR countries are Singapore 1.2, Italy, Portugal, 1.3, Spain, Finland, Croatia 1.4, Poland, Canada, Hungary 1.5, Switzerland, Germany, Romania 1.6, Belgium Netherlands and U.K 1.7 and New Zealand, Sweden, Denmark and U.S 1.8. All these are developed economies and as their TFR are below 2.1 and all of them have an aging population. This is going to have an effect on their productivity and their GDP.

 

Thus there is a shifting age structure in many parts of the world, with 2·37 billion (1·91–2·87) individuals older than 65 years and 1·70 billion (1·11–2·81) individuals younger than 20 years, forecasted globally in 2100. By 2050, 151 countries are forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level (TFR <2·1), and 183 are forecasted to have a TFR lower than replacement by 2100. 23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain, are forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 to 2100; China's population is forecasted to decline by 48·0% (−6·1 to 68·4). China is forecasted to become the largest economy by 2035 but in the reference scenario, the USA is forecasted to once again become the largest economy in 2098 because of its demographic dividend.

 

TFR and economic consequences and migrants

The twin issues of TFR below replacement rate and lower death rates has led to a substantial aging of the population  in the affluent North (Europe and North America). This in turn can disrupt labour markets, threaten the fiscal sustainability of pension systems, and slow down economic growth. There are more old people on retirement benefits and less young working hands to run the wheels of economy. This is where the migrants come in. New immigrants increase the size of the labour force, countering its natural decline in the advanced economies of the North, where people are aging out of the workforce at a faster rate than the young are entering. Immigrants also support the demographics of advanced economies because their fertility rate is higher than that of natives. In the United States, the TFR of natives was 1.76 children per woman in 2017, whereas that of immigrants was 2.18. The presence of immigrants helps to keep U.S. fertility at levels closer to the replacement rate. So when politicians like Trump and the far right in Europe lament that immigrants are taking up all the jobs from the blue collared ones in the factories to the white collared ones in Silicon Valley they have to seriously ponder whether their economy will withstand the low TFR.

 

Host countries have traditionally chosen their migrant population and the migrants too have chosen their new hosts (neighbouring country, colonial rulers, thriving economy) but often the circumstances under which the migration occurred decides the true worth of the migrant to a host country. If they are ambitious and highly skilled then every host country welcomes them but if they are displaced by war, famine, natural calamity, terrorism or strife then they find it difficult to find a host as their skill sets are suspect and if not gainfully employed they may cause law and order problems. Religion of the migrants is also a not so subtle issue as many countries with far right governments are not very welcoming toward Muslims as they do not like the change in religious demography being witnessed in many large cities of U.K, France, Germany, Netherlands and Belgium and their social consequences.

 

The bottom line is that only net immigration can ensure population stability or growth in the aging advanced economies of the North, and this will happen only if they promote forward-looking immigration policies that allow larger numbers of immigrants and consider their long-run impact, rather than focusing only on the short-term calculations of their (mostly political) costs. However, low fertility and high immigration do not go hand in hand always. Several of the lowest-fertility countries (mostly in eastern and southern Europe) experienced low immigration rates. Some of these countries, such as Hungary and Poland, have recently elected governments decidedly hostile toward immigrants.

 

The rapid aging of the world's population will bring unprecedented and important changes in the global economic environment, creating unique challenges and opportunities for businesses worldwide. These challenges and opportunities span multiple business areas, including strategy, human resources, cross-cultural management, and marketing, while operating simultaneously at the functional, corporate, and public policy levels nationally and internationally.

 

UNRAVELLING THE MYSTERY OF YOUR NAVEL

 

 

What exactly comes to your mind when you think of a navel? It is a distinctive part of human anatomy which is both stimulating and erogenous. People often wear ornaments by pricking it! But the fact is that this is the site of our maternal attachment and also the first scar in our body. When we were just a foetus in our mother’s womb we had attachments to our mother’s blood supply through this site and the umbilical cord. Even our intestine and urinary bladder were connected to it by connections which withered off once we were born.

 

But do you know that the bacterial “fauna” in your navel is much like that of a tropical forest. According to researchers, 2,400 species of bacteria types (some new to science) can be found in your belly button, but there’s no reason to worry: they’re quite harmless. The composition of the bacteria in each person’s navel makes them unique. Strangely, scientists even discovered a kind of bacteria that’s only found in the soil of Japan in the belly button of a man who had never been to the country in his life!

 

Why do we have a navel?

Mammals are split into three groups: placentals, monotremes, and marsupials. Placental mammals are by far the greater and most diverse group of the three, carrying this name because they nourish their offspring through a placenta. Incidentally, the name is somewhat of a misnomer since marsupials also have a placenta. The placenta is essentially an organ that connects the developing fetus to the inner wall of the uterus. As the fetus is carried in the uterus of its mother to a relatively late stage of development, it gets all of its necessary nutrients through the placenta. The placenta also provides oxygen and removes waste products from the fetus’ blood through a cord like structure called the umbilical cord. The fetus’s umbilical cord develops from the placenta. After birth, when the placenta is separated from the baby, the resulting scar tissue (a hollowed or sometimes raised area) is clinically called the umbilicus. Colloquially, it’s called the navel or the belly button. So your belly button is probably your first scar!

 

Marsupials like kangaroos, wombats and koalas incubate their young in a pouch. Their umbilical cords fall off while they’re still inside the mother’s pouch, so a scar never forms, and they never develop a belly button.

In adult life it acts as a watershed line which basically means that veins and lymphatic drainage above its level and below its level remain confined to respective areas. You will be surprised to know that children born with certain developmental problems of the urinary bladder, abdominal wall are born without a typical navel!

 

Beauty and the navel

In a study conducted to ascertain the characteristics of an aesthetically pleasing umbilicus, a photographic analysis was undertaken using 147 female participants between the ages of 18 and 62 years. Each subject's age, height, and weight were recorded. Photographs of each participant's umbilicus were then taken from 30 cm and 50 cm away. The photographs were reviewed by the authors, and each umbilicus was categorized on the basis of size, shape, hooding, or protrusion. The photographs were then reviewed by a panel and given a score between 1 and 10 to rate attractiveness. Using linear regression analysis, the effects of body mass index, shape, hooding, and umbilical protrusion on attractiveness were assessed. The T- or vertically shaped umbilicus with superior hooding consistently scored the highest in aesthetic appeal, whereas the presence of any degree of protrusion and a horizontal orientation or distorted shape detracted from the score. Those with a large umbilicus tended to score consistently lower than those with a smaller configuration.  [S B Craig  , M S Faller, C L Puckett : In search of the ideal female umbilicus. Plast Reconstr Surg . 2000 Jan;105(1):389-92. doi: 10.1097/00006534-200001000-00062.] 

 

Navel is an erogenous zone.

Media has done a great job of hyping up this body part as sexually explicit, but the navel’s heightened sensitivity may also attribute to its status as sensual. “Simply viewing the belly button area can be a sexual trigger, psychologist Leon F. Seltzer, PhD, writes in Psychology Today. “From heterosexual man’s point of view, seeing the exposed navel and surrounding area can be very attractive. It accentuates a woman’s waistline, her curves and brings out the beauty and fertility of a woman’s body.”

The belly button is an erogenous zone. It may just be a scar, but it is highly erogenous. The area has many nerve endings, making it sensitive and ticklish, and can therefore send intimate tingles up your spine. From a heterosexual man's point of view, seeing the exposed navel and surrounding area can be very attractive. It accentuates a woman's waistline, her curves, and brings out the beauty and fertility of a woman's body. Simply viewing the belly button area can be a sexual trigger. 

 

No wonder several thousand people are having navel plastic surgery each year and the trend is increasing. Interestingly, breast implant surgeries can also be done through the navel in order to avoid scarring; it’s called Trans-umbilical breast augmentation. The navel is routinely used by laparoscopic surgeons to hide their port scar.

 

Types of Navel

Outie and Innie: Most people’s belly buttons are either an “outie” or an “innie.” Outie belly buttons look like a little knot that is sticking out, while innie belly buttons go inward and are like a little dent in your abdominal wall. An estimated 10 percent of the population are outie and most of the remaining are innie. A deep hollow belly button will typically appear if there’s a shadow underneath the belly button’s top fold. Some people in this category may have a “funnel” belly button, which is common with excess abdominal fat.

During pregnancy, a woman’s belly expands to accommodate a growing fetus. The expanding abdomen of pregnancy can pop an innie belly button out, causing it to become an outie. This usually happens during the second or third trimester. After delivery, most women can expect their navel to return to its typical shape.

Vertical: This looks like a vertical slit in the abdominal wall. A vertical belly button typically has very little hooding over its top, instead looking much like an “I” imprinted in the skin. It is a type of ‘innie’ but is much narrower.

Horizontal: Also known as a T-type belly button, a horizontal belly button has most of the belly button fold going horizontally. A depression at the top of the belly button may look like the line that crosses a “T.”

Round: A round belly button is still concave or protruding inward. However, it doesn’t have any hooding or covering, instead it appears symmetrically rounded.

Light bulb: A light bulb-shaped belly button has very little hooding on the top, with a slightly oval shape that narrows as it goes down — much like a light bulb. Some people also compare a light bulb-shaped belly button to an upside-down beer or wine bottle. 

 

But honestly, any classification of navels is an over simplification. They are so diverse in appearance that the refuse to fall in any pattern:

 

 

 

Some people fear belly buttons

Yes, indeed. Some people have an overwhelming fear of seeing or touching a belly button, whether their own or someone else’s. This type of fear is called omphalophobia, which comes from the Greek word omphalo for the navel. This phobia is believed to be associated with umbilical cords and wombs. It can also stem from the childhood fear that a belly button will suddenly become undone, causing our guts to spill out. Yikes!

 

Keep it clean

Yes, you navel is a place where lots of bacteria and fungi reside. It also has remnants of lint. The lint in our belly button is composed of fabric fibers that are shed from our garments, along with dead skin cells and body hair. Since men typically have more hairs around that area, they have more lint in the navel.  The navel lint is mostly blue. Why so? Because blue is the most common clothing colour and many people regularly wear jeans.

Belly button lint is also quite gross. No need to be alarmed, though. Just make sure that you clean your belly button properly every day. Once a week, you should clean it thoroughly using warm water and mild soap. Gently clean in and around the belly button using a damp cloth, and dry off with a towel.

 

Regenarative medicine has kindled further interest in the umbilicus as umbilical cord blood is rich in stem cells which can be used to cure many diseases like cancer, blood diseases like anaemias and immune disorders. It is easy to harvest and has ten times more stem cells than bone marrow.

So much about your navel!