Saturday 25 February 2017

WITH 93,000 PAKISTANI PRISONERS OF WAR WHY WAS THE KASHMIR PROBLEM NOT SOLVED?





An interesting article for those who may be interested in the history and story of the liberation of Bangladesh is written by a veteran diplomat Sashanka S Banerjee . This is the untold story of why PM Indira Gandhi decided at the end of the Bangladesh War 0f 1971 not to hard bargain Pakistan on the issue of the release of 93,000 Pak POWs from Indian custody. Handled differently the Pak POWs issue had the potential to achieve the final settlement of the vexed Kashmir problem.


Eight months after the conclusion of the 13-day India-Pakistan War on 16 December 1971, the Shimla Agreement was signed on 2 August 1972 under which India agreed to send back home all the 93,000 Pakistani POWS  taken by the Indian Army at the end of the war. India’s decision kicked up a huge controversy in India questioning why Prime Minister Indira Gandhi missed the golden opportunity of not using the POWs to force Pakistan for the settlement of the Kashmir problem. What motivated the PM to do this? What were behind the scene developments? Were there any compelling circumstances which have remained unreported? If there were any, ideally they should be placed in the public domain as lessons from history, for the benefit of the future generations. Since I was personally privy to these “behind the scene” developments, I can now as a retired Indian diplomat, although more than 40 years after the event, tell the story.   
                                                       

16 December 1971, the day when Pakistan’s Armed Forces laid down their arms in a Surrender Ceremony in Dhaka before the Joint Command of Indian Armed Forces and the Bangladesh’s Mukti Bahini was the finest hour in the military history of both the nations, one old and another new. However as the Armed Forces of the two countries were celebrating their military victory, against an unrelenting tormentor, over the creation of a newly minted sovereign independent nation, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s mind, in the post-war scenario, was pondering over other critical issues facing India.


Apart from having to cope with the enormous cost of conducting a War, India was faced with the financial burden of having to look after the 10 million refugees who had crossed over to India from East Pakistan fleeing the horrendous atrocities of the Pakistan Army, better known as Bangladesh Genocide of 1971.


The other big challenge, which was diplomatically quite complex involving national security and foreign policy issues, requiring delicate handling was now the unforeseen and unbudgeted responsibility of having to look after the 93,000 Pakistani soldiers taken as POWs. India wanted to keep the Pakistani soldiers in comfort, over and above, the provisions of the Geneva Convention.   



Indira Gandhi’s paramount concern at that moment of time was how to get back the Bangladesh leader Shaikh Mujibur Rahman alive and well. Mrs Gandhi was prepared to pay any price to save his life. This much the PM confided to, at least one member of her so called Kitchen Cabinet. That person was Ram Nath Kao, the RAW Chief.


The PM was acutely aware that Mujib was tried by a Military Court when a verdict of death by hanging on charges of treason was handed to the Bangladesh leader. Also as is typical with Pakistan, its security services did not fail to demonstrate its morbidity in the crudest possible terms. In Mujib’s prison cell a 6.5 ft long grave was dug with an overhanging rope with a loop at the end, serving as a warning that he would face a cruel death any moment by hanging on the rope. It was a nightmare for Mrs Gandhi to imagine that if the Pakistan Army carried out the death sentence, Bangladesh would emerge as an orphaned state. For India, who supported the Bangladesh Liberation Struggle, heart and soul, it would be an unmitigated disaster, a dream shattered. So India would leave no stone unturned to save Mujib’s life, for his sake, for the sake of his family, for the sake of Bangladesh and for well-wisher India’s sake.            

 
Meanwhile the defeat in war for Pakistan at the hands of its perceived arch enemy India was seen as an intolerable insult to its nationhood. What was worse Pakistan lost half of its territory to Bangladesh, leaving Mohammad Ali Jinnah’s two-nation theory – the ideological foundation of Pakistan’s existence - in tatters. Stung by this incalculable catastrophe the Military Dictator, General Yahya Khan, in a flash decision, taking full responsibility for the national disaster, stepped down from his office. He asked Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto who was still in New York attending UNSC meetings to return home to Islamabad. Bhutto was also informed by General Yahya Khan that he had resigned from his office and that he (Bhutto) was appointed as the Chief Martial Law Administrator of Pakistan. However before he took his flight for Rawalpindi, Bhutto was instructed that he must call on US President Richard Nixon, Pakistan’s mentor at that time, in Washington DC.


The Grand Finale – an Unlikely Thriller was still awaiting. Bhutto’s Washington-Rawalpindi flight was scheduled for a refueling stop-over at Heathrow Airport in London. Having secured an insider information about the details of Bhutto’s return journey home, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi called an Emergency Meeting of the War Cabinet in New Delhi at her office in South Block. The PM wanted with utmost urgency a contact to be established on Bhutto’s arrival at Heathrow Airport in London and explore what information could be gathered about the only one piece of intelligence India was looking for namely: what was Bhutto thinking about Mujibur Rahman on the verdict of the death sentence passed on him by Pakistan’s Military Court?  The meeting was attended by Durga Prasad Dhar, Policy Planning Minister in the Ministry of External Affairs, Ram Nath Kao, Chief of Research and Analysis Wing, (India’s External Intelligence Agency ), PN Haksar, Prime Minister’s Principal Secretary and TN Kaul, Foreign Secretary. 


It was under PM’s instructions that Muzaffar Hussain ( name slightly changed ), who was the Chief Secretary of the Government of East Pakistan, the highest level Civil Servant posted in Dhaka as on 16 December 1971 and now a POW in India, considering his high status was lodged as a VIP guest at the official residence of the Foreign Minister DP Dhar. His wife Mrs Laila Hussain who was visiting London when War broke out on 3 December 1971 couldn’t return home and was stuck in London. Both Mr Hussain (from Delhi) and Mrs Hussain (in London) were communicating with each other through Diplomatic Channels. I was assigned the job of a VIP courier. Thanks to several to-ing and fro-ing, I soon established a useful rapport with Mrs Laila Hussain.


The PM was very much aware that Laila Hussain and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto were intimate friends from the past. And their intimacy had remained unbroken. It was felt at the PMO - Prime Minister’s Office - that she was well placed to play a key role in a Bhutto-Laila Hussain Track-II one-off diplomatic “Summit” at the VIP Lounge - Alcock and Brown Suite at Heathrow Airport.      


I had met D.P. Dhar several times in London during the 9 months from 25 March 1971 to 16 December 1971 when the Bangladesh Liberation Struggle was in progress. It was at that time that we became friends. He was an unassuming refined literary personality extremely well versed in Urdu poetry. My love of Urdu poetry from my days at the Osmania University in Hyderabad was the reason which forged our unlikely friendship despite the huge gap in official hierarchy.  DP was a Cabinet Minister and I was a mere bureaucrat. Just 2 days before Bhutto was to arrive in London I got a telephone call from DP Dhar in Delhi. DP wanted me to inform Laila Hussain that Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was appointed as the Chief Martial Law Administrator of Pakistan and that he was on his way to Islamabad from Washington. His flight would be stopping at Heathrow Airport for refuelling. I was supposed to persuade Laila Hussain to meet Bhutto – for old time’s sake - and ask him in his capacity as the Chief Martial Law Administrator, if he could help getting her husband released from Delhi.  Laila knew only too well that I was aware that she had a relationship with Zulfiqar Ali in the past. Beyond Laila Hussain’s husband, how the discussions progressed would be a matter of great interest to us. India wanted to know only one thing: what Bhutto was thinking about Mujib: release him to return home or carry out the court verdict.        


I succeeded in setting up the meeting. Thus two long-lost friends Laila Hussain and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto met at the VIP Lounge at Heathrow Airport. The meeting was marked by great cordiality. It was as convivial as could be. Without a doubt, the Track II “Summit” turned out to be a meeting of great historic significance. It was well and truly a thriller, a grand finale to this narrative.  Bhutto was quick on the uptake. As he was replying to Laila Hussain’s emotional appeal for help in getting her husband released from Indian custody, he had measured up that the lady was in fact doing a biding from the highest authority in Delhi. With a twinkle in his eye and changing the subject, pulling her aside, Bhutto in a whisper conveyed to Laila Hussain a very sensitive top secret message for the Indian PM. Sourced from Mrs Laila Hussain, I quote “Laila I know what you want. I can imagine you are doing a biding from Mrs Indira Gandhi. Do please pass a message to her, that after I take charge of office back home, I will shortly thereafter release Mujibur Rahman, allowing him to return home. What I want in return, I will let Mrs Indira Gandhi know through another channel. You may now go”.      

 
After Laila Hussain briefed me following the meeting, I lost no time in shooting out a confidential message to the PMO in Delhi reporting Laila Hussain’s input. Not unexpectedly, Mrs Gandhi was pleased that Bhutto had sent out a positive message, although unofficially through a Track II channel, but her suspicion was could Zulfikar Ali Bhutto be trusted? The PM was cautiously optimistic but only just?  Was Bhutto trying to mislead India? Was he creating a false dawn with a mischievous motive? She wanted a confirmation of Laila Hussain’s input from our Diplomatic Mission in Pakistan as fast as possible. Meanwhile within hours, a report came back from Islamabad confirming the authenticity of Laila Hussain’s report. At this point PM took matters in her own hands elevating the discourse from the level of bureaucracy to the political level.


At her own level the PM had come to know that Mujib would first land in London and then fly from there to Dhaka or may be via Delhi. Sharing a secret thought with one of the members of her Kitchen Cabinet, she confided that she now had confirmed information what Bhutto wanted from her in return against Mujib’s impending release. Bhutto had no option but to release Mujib first, the turn of the POWs would come later. Obviously Bhutto was relying on Mrs Gandhi’s sense of decency that she will not let him down. It was getting clear that Mrs Indira Gandhi had made up her mind. If Bhutto personally asked her for the release of the POWs, she would have no hesitation in agreeing to it. A gesture of generosity must be met with a matching gesture of grace. No less.     

            
In a show of manufactured geo-political generosity, known in Pakistan as Biryani Diplomacy, over-ruling the verdict of death handed by a Military Court in Rawalpindi, ZA Bhutto ( read ISI ) released Mujibur Rahman on 8 January 1972. On his return Mujib took charge as Prime Minister of sovereign independent Bangladesh on 10 January 1972.


Exuding a spirit of genuine gratefulness for sparing the life of Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh’s Father of the Nation, eight months after he was set free, India ordered the release of all 93,000 Pakistani POWs under the Shimla Agreement of 2 August 1972. The world had never known such decency in the conduct of international relations as India had shown to Pakistan on the POW issue.  


The brutal assassination of Mujibur Rahman and his family 3 years and 8 months later on August  15, 1975 by a batch of Abbottabad trained Pakistan Army officers who were now holding senior positions in Bangladesh Army, seemed like a belated fulfilment of an unfinished agenda of the ISI to mete out severe punishment on the Bangladesh leader for his role in unravelling the territorial integrity of Pakistan on 16 December 1971. His release from Mianwali Prison on 8 January 1972 was merely a distraction.


From India’s perspective, the vexed Kashmir problem remained unresolved. Pakistan launched an unrelenting proxy war which has lasted 45 years up until this day. Thousands lost their lives. The blood never dried; the tears have never stopped flowing.  

 

I conclude by what Justice Abu Said Choudhury, who later became the President of Bangladesh, had to say in a strongly worded letter dated 16 December 1971 addressed to Mrs Indira Gandhi warning her of dire consequences if she decided to go for an Unilateral Cease Fire on the Western Front. It would remain, he maintained, a half-finished business of the Bangladesh War. His concluding line was: “When you chop off the tail of a cobra, its head becomes ten times more venomous”.


The letter arrived on the Prime Minister’s desk a day too late

Thursday 23 February 2017

HATE CRIME – WHY AND WHOM TO BLAME



An engineer from Hyderabad 32 years old Srinivas Kuchibhotla was shot dead and another Alok Madasani was injured on Wednesday night after Adam Purinton, a 51-year-old Navy veteran allegedly opened fire at them, yelling, "get out of my country". This happened at a bar in Kansas in US and the accused has been arrested and charged with murder. Another man identified as Ian Grillot, who tried to overpower the assailant was also injured in the shooting. Mr. Purinton thought that the Hyderabadi duo was from a Middle Eastern country and reincarnation of Osama bin Laden I guess! But is that an excuse to extinguish a life? This is Xenophobia. Xenophobia: Intense or irrational dislike or fear of people from other countries.

Hostility towards strangers within American and European right-wing populist parties has been apparent in its commonness, its virulence, as well as its danger. Xenophobia can be defined as the fear of the unknown, particularly of strangers or foreigners. Islamophobia is one type of xenophobia which relates to the fear of Muslims, as well as their acts. This fear of another nation or minority that is in some way different often develops into hatred and the feeling of one’s own superiority above another person’s background and heritage.

Though this incident happened in America xenophobia is today a global phenomenon. Xenophobia and islamophobia incorporates hatred of people that belong to a different race, ethnic group, or national origin. Needless to say, such negative attitudes are particularly dangerous within a multinational entity such as the European Union and the U.S. Norway, France, the Netherlands, Finland, Italy, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, and Austria all are experiencing this problem and the influx of Syrian refugees has simply accentuated this problem.

In Norway, the Progress Party was originally formed as an anti-tax libertarian party, but at the present time, it is a typical anti-immigration party. The party argues that immigration is the main cause of crime and social tensions that directly influence the welfare state, which the party wants to reduce. They intend to tighten Norwegian immigration policy, allowing only a limited number of immigrants into the country’s labor market. This is quite understandable but the slogans and atmosphere that it aims to set among the Norwegian population are at times particularly xenophobic.

In France, the situation is similar. However, the French Front National party opposes immigration both into the country and into the European Union in general. Furthermore, the Party has actively advocated in favor of the law that would make it compulsory for immigrants to leave the country, and the EU, and return to their country of origin. Faced by a severe criticism of xenophobia from the liberals they have now agreed to advocate such actions for foreign-born criminals only. Now doesn’t that sound familiar to Donald Trump?

The situation with xenophobia in the Netherlands has a particular islamophobic peculiarity to it. It has been historically a country with a high rate of Muslim immigration, and apparently, some are quite frustrated with the fact that the immigrants from Muslim countries take away their welfare benefits and their jobs. With the economic crisis and increase in the unemployment rates, the Party of Freedom of Netherlands has strongly supported the idea of closing the borders to all Muslim immigrants, as well as such radical measures as banning the Koran, putting in “head rag tax” posters, and even arguing that Dutch Muslims should lose their citizenship.

The True Finns right-wing party of Finland refers to Brussels as “the heart of darkness.” The party runs on highly xenophobic grounds and enforces hostility to any foreign representatives. For instance, the party intends to restrict foreigners from acquiring Finnish nationality or take refuge in Finland.

The  Northern League (Lega Nord) of Italy seeks “Padania”–the term that means greater autonomy for Northern parts of the country. The Northern League is against immigration from Romany and from outside the European Union. The party overtly antagonizes Muslims as well. On one occasion, a member of the Northern League party lobbed a pig’s head onto the prospective site of a mosque, a highly disrespectful and insulting act for Muslims.

In Switzerland, the Swiss People’s Party is highly opposed to Switzerland’s admission to the European Union. One of the main arguments against it is that joining the EU will cause a boost in immigration of foreigners, both legal and illegal, which is seen as a serious threat to the economic prosperity and well-being of the original Swiss population. In 2009, the Swiss People’s Party sent a direct message against the Muslim population when they supported a referendum that opposed the formation of new minarets (Islamic mosques), and 57% of Swiss voters endorsed the referendum.

In Denmark, the Danish People’s Party is also particularly aggressive towards immigration of all kinds, and is obsessed with security at the country’s borders. According to the party’s agenda, they will not allow Denmark to transform into a multi-ethnic society, because Denmark is not an immigrant-friendly nation and does not intend to become one. The party maintains that Denmark only belongs to the Danes and consequently, its citizens have a right to live in a secure society, established on the rule of law developed from Danish culture and traditions, and the rules of which would be completely alien to an immigrant.

In Austria, the Alliance for the Future of Austria and the Freedom Party of Austria under the leadership of Jörg Haider, campaign mainly on an anti-immigration stance. However, their party programs are acknowledged by libertarians and populists. In Sweden, the Swedish Democrat party motto is “Keep Sweden Swedish.” Just like most of Europe’s right-wing populist parties, the Swedish Democrats are typically recognized for their anti-immigrant xenophobia. The party demands a 90% decrease in the number of refugees migrating to Sweden.

The situation in the U.S is there for all to see. Easy availability of firearms and Klu Klux Klan type of xenophobic mentality has seen several horrific crimes being committed and the ignorant Americans have mistaken Sikhs and Hindus to be rabid Muslims from the Middle East and gunned them down in schools, pubs and places of worship. Many Americans today are pledged by xenophobia because they have been dealing with the after effects of 9/11 since a very young age, teenagers today are very familiar with discrimination against these people. But xenophobia is mostly caused by ignorance. If Americans knew how the presence of Al-Queda had ruined the lives of so many Iraqis, and that terrorist groups and America-hating radical Muslims were an extreme minority in the Middle East, they wouldn't face the discrimination that they do today.


So who is failing and why are innocent lives like that of Srinivas Kuchibhotla being lost every day? The leaders are the first to be blamed. When xenophobia becomes a tool in the hand of politicians hate crimes are bound to happen. Followers of Islam too should share the burden and the moderate Muslim should find his/her voice and speak out loud and clear. He/she has to clearly tell the extremists that they do not represent either them or Islam. If lambs choose to remain silent they are just waiting to get slaughtered.

Monday 20 February 2017

POLARIZATION IN POLITICS



In the world of politics, polarization refers to the divergence of political attitudes to ideological extremes. Though expected in countries with two political parties like the U.S, where the Democrats and the Republicans rarely see eye to eye, multi party democracies are not immune to it. The B.J.P and the Left and left of centre thinkdom (LLCT remember!) led by Congress in India are two vastly divergent polarized political entities who have a very different vision of India. The LLCT has always used the Muslim minority as an everlasting vote cluster, kept them poor and deprived. They have brain-washed them into believing that their very existence in secular India relied on keeping the right inclined B.J.P out of power. The B.J.P on their part accuses the LLCT of Muslim appeasement and emphasizes that the country cannot prosper if 18% of its population lags behind. It talks of ‘sabka saath sabka vikas’ i.e. ‘we progress with everyone with everyone’s help’ and refuses to offer any undue concession along religious lines. But one thing is undeniable, when polarization occurs in a democracy, moderate voices often lose power and influence and polling along polarized lines often sends the undeserving to the parliament or senate.

Polarization requires divergence on a broad range of issues based on a consistent set of beliefs. Democrats are liberal and left leaning and believe that government regulations are needed to protect consumers. Republicans are conservative and right leaning and believe that government regulations hinder free market capitalism and job growth. Democrats don’t mind taxing the rich while the republicans don’t like taxing anyone and are of the opinion that wages should be set by free market. Democrats support universal healthcare  and strongly support of government involvement in healthcare, whereas Republicans feel that private companies can provide healthcare services more efficiently than government-run programs. Add to this these two parties have differences in military spending, gay marriages, abortions and death penalties.

In India however all parties agree on a wide range of issues – poverty alleviation, urbanization of villages,  military spending, and all of them are guilty of neglecting maternal and child health, education and malnutrition. But there are stark partisan or ideological divides, even if opinion is polarized only on a few issues, or shall I say one issue – minority appeasement. The LLCT can simply not afford to let it go as its very existence depends on polarized minority votes and so paints the B.J.P communal and declares itself as secular. The formula has served them well for seven decades but now the apparitional India has called its bluff and seen through the charade.

Political scientists typically distinguish between two types of political polarization: elite polarization and popular polarization. "Elite polarization" refers to the polarization of political elites, like party organizers and elected officials, while "popular polarization" (or mass polarization) refers to polarization in the electorate and general public. In either context, opinions and policy positions are characterized by strict adherence to party lines.

Popular polarization occurs when the electorate's attitudes towards political issues, policies, and people are starkly divided along partisan lines. Members of the electorate and general public typically become less moderate in cases of popular polarization as was witnessed in the U.S elections this time. Zenophobia and particularly Islamophobia reigned supreme amongst the Republican voters and the most boisterous of them all was chosen the President. This was one occasion when we saw the political polarization of the entire country in a top-down process, in which elite polarization led to - or at least preceded - popular polarization. The white Christian America was reminded again and again that they have to make America great again……..or, did it actually mean white and Christian again!

Yet polarization amongst elites does not necessarily produce polarization within the electorate as was witnessed in the May 2014 Indian elections. So while the LLCT tried its level best to establish their traditional secular and non-secular divide, the voters rejected it and the elite polarization was not translated into popular polarization.  The fact that polarized electoral choices can often reflect elite polarization (resulting in highly polarized policies and candidates) rather than voters' preferences has time and time resulted in political parties choosing disgraceful candidates with a plethora of criminal records for our elections.

But in India now we are seeing the emergence of a new trend. Despite a concerted effort by "secular" parties to get Muslims to vote en bloc against BJP, the saffron challenger prevailed largely because of what is being called "reverse polarization". In the 2014 general elections the B.J.P won Saharanpur, Amroha, Shrawasti, Bijnor, Muzaffarnagar, Moradabad and Rampur, where the Muslim population hovers around 40%. For the first time since Independence, UP has no Muslim MP. The trend was similar in Bihar where out of the 17 seats where Muslims have more than 15% of votes, BJP has won 12. So those who are not a part of the vote bank are now voting in vengeance against the LLCT and this has made them a worried lot.

After politics the media and the judiciary are two institutions that are maximally effected by polarization. The trend of less news and more views has particularly affected the voting public in the last 2 to 3 decades, as previously less partisan viewers are given more polarized news media which in turn are owned by political masters. The mass media’s current, fragmented, high-choice environment has induced a movement of the audience from more even-toned political programming to more antagonistic and one-sided broadcasts and articles. These programs tend to appeal to partisan viewers who watch the polarized programming as a self-confirming source for their ideologies. No wonder Trump calls a majority of American media as ‘fake news’ and B.J.P treats the paid media with contempt and disdain.

It is a fact of history that India’s higher judiciary has intervened at key moments in the country’s public life to safeguard democracy. From preventing the legislature from wantonly amending the Constitution out of shape (by limiting Parliament’s amending power under Article 368) to making an insensitive executive respond to citizens’ needs through public interest litigation, high courts and the Supreme Court have stepped in when our polarized legislatures have failed. But can there be judicial remedies to political decay? The ‘tyranny of the unelected’, as the government chooses to call it, has seen governmental tardiness in filling vacancies in the judiciary, an uncomfortable relationship and a blurring of separation of powers between the judiciary and the legislature. In the U.S too this relationship is far from cordial as issues like abortion, affirmative action, gay rights, and gun rights capture part of the significance of judicial politics in polarized timesand despite judges’ claims, actual legal decisions are not the politically neutral products of disembodied legal texts. But are judges “tyrants in robes,” undermining democratic values by imposing their own preferences? We will never know because this is the price of polarization in politics.  

Monday 13 February 2017

TECHNOLOGY – THE DOUBLE EDGE SWORD




There is no doubt in my mind that technology has completely changed the world we live in and every sphere of life from health to transportation to public safety, consumer products, home furnishings, recreation, environment, agriculture to even baby food we can appreciate the change. We are forecasting natural calamities well in time and doing smarter and quicker reconstructions and rehabilitation, preventing diseases and epidemics and reaching distant planets and distant people with effortless ease. But is it sugar and spice and everything nice?  Unfortunately not so and we do not have to look beyond the group of school going teenagers in our morning bus. Their identity, the idea that defines each and every one of them, could be facing an unprecedented crisis. The hooded and wired creatures who have developed the unique art of living two lives – a real and a virtual one are confused about  who they are, what they do and how they behave.  This crisis could reshape how we interact with each other, alter what makes us happy, and modify our capacity for reaching our full potential as individuals. The human brain today is under threat from the modern world. 


IBM, the technology giant that gave the world the personal computer, is known for its bold, technology-related predictions on the future, and it recently came up with a new list, detailing what it thinks the world will look like in just five years’ time.


The company predicts that there will be huge advances in artificial intelligence, ultra-powerful telescopes, smart sensors and smart medical devices. All of these advances put together will benefit many different fields, ranging from healthcare to the environment, as well as allowing humanity to understand both the Earth and the universe to a degree that simply wasn’t possible before.
You must keep in mind that these predictions are based on technology and research that’s happening in the present, and that there’s no way of knowing what other technologies might emerge, or developments be made, in the intervening time.  I will dwell on 5 new technological predictions only:

1. Speech giving insight into our mental health: While even today it is possible to gauge whether a person is bored, flustered, distracted, or miserable by the way he/she speaks rapid advancements are being made in computer processing that means speech analysis is about to allow us a far deeper insight into the human condition than ever before. IBM predicts that we’ll be able to use our writing and speech as indicators of our mental health and physical well being by 2022. Thus we may be able to spot Parkinson’s disease much earlier than previously possible thanks to a mobile app. This app would send relevant data to a computing cloud, where calculations could be done on the spot, allowing for treatment to be conducted as early as possible. Along the same lines a team from the University of Southern California has built a program that can detect variations from normal speech patterns and identify signs of depression.

2. Enhanced vision: Our eyes are a scientific marvel which has not yet been reproduced by humans. However their power could soon be eclipsed by tiny cameras combined with formidably powerful processing power, allowing us to see more than ever before. In addition to the visible spectrum, we’ll be able to see microwave, millimeter waves, and infrared images through devices that’ll be small enough to fit into our pockets or clip onto our sunglasses. This will instantly allow us to be able to see if food is safe to eat, or give self-driving cars the ability to navigate through difficult weather conditions much more easily.

3. We will be able to understand the Earth in infinite detail: We have already used apps like Google Earth, which harnesses the power of satellites orbiting the Earth. This is just the beginning of what is possible with the technology. The next step is going to be “macroscope” systems which will allow the combination of all the complex data on the Earth so that it can be analyzed from all kinds of new perspectives predict everything from climate change events, to determining the best food distribution methods to communities around the globe.

4. “Labs on a chip” are set to cause a medical revolution: With each passing year, computing technology continues to shrink and gets ever more powerful, and this is already having a significant impact on the medical industry. In the near future, it’s likely that we will actually have the ability to diagnose illnesses or diseases at home, catching them earlier than ever before. Scientists are envisaging a “medical lab on a chip” – nanotechnology health devices that will trace invisible cues in our bodily fluids- tears, blood, urine and sweat, letting us know immediately in the event that we need to see a doctor. It’ll be like having our very own biochemist tucked away in our pocket. Early diagnosis will make a massive difference to the success of treatments for cancer or Parkinson’s, among many others. By 2022, a sleep tracker or fitness band will be able to feed data into an artificial intelligence system, in turn allowing us to access detailed information on how to improve our health. It will also remotely alert our doctor to any signs of impending disease by smart telemedicine.

5. Smart sensors will detect environmental pollution almost instantly: In the same way that a smart tracker could spot the early signs of disease, smart sensors in the ground, or attached to drones, could sniff out pollutants in the air without having to transfer any samples back to a lab. A practical application of this could be to contain leaks of the notorious global warming gas, methane. This idea has massive potential for the reduction of pollution and waste in the event that something goes wrong.


But our modern brains also have to adapt to other 21st century intrusions, some of which, such as prescribed drugs like Ritalin and Prozac, and some widely available illegal drugs like cannabis and heroin. Electronic devices – cell phones and computer games and pharmaceutical drugs all have an impact on the micro- cellular structure and complex biochemistry of our brains. And that, in turn, affects our personality, our behavior and our characteristics. In short, the modern world could well be altering our human identity. Our brain, which invented the computer, the World Wide Web and the artificial intelligence, is itself` now under such widespread attack from the modern world, that there's a danger that that it’s cherished sense could be diminished or even lost.


Already, it's pretty clear that the screen-based, two dimensional world that so many teenagers - and a growing number of adults - choose to inhabit is producing changes in behaviour. Attention spans are shorter, personal communication skills are reduced and there's a marked reduction in the ability to think abstractly. This games-driven generation interpret the world through screen-shaped eyes. It's almost as if something hasn't really happened until it's been posted on Facebook, Bebo or YouTube.


I would urge you to imagine that if someone could be fitted with a cochlear implant (devices that convert sound waves into electronic impulses and enable the deaf to hear) and a skull-mounted micro- chip that converts brain waves into words what is only left is to connect the two systems to a wireless network or an app and the next thing you know, we are reading each other’s minds! Will that not be dangerously close to insanity?


Our changes in brain structure and our higher thoughts and feelings are incontrovertibly linked. Have you imagined what changes might long stints playing violent computer games bring about? Are we breeding the future Jihadi generation? Coinciding with the moment when technology and pharmaceutical companies are finding ever more ways to have a direct influence on the human brain with pleasure drugs and video games, pleasure is becoming the sole be-all and end-all of many lives, especially among the young. We could be raising a hedonistic generation who live only in the thrill of the computer-generated moment, and are in distinct danger of detaching themselves from what the rest of us would consider the real world.

This is a trend that worries me profoundly.

Thursday 2 February 2017

WHERE ARE THE TRAVELLERS GOING AND WHY?







Tourism is a big industry and as disposable incomes increase more and more people are leaving home for long vacations and short trips. This is a big and attractive pie and every country wants a big chunk of it. But unfortunately not every country is planning for it. If you consider what are the factors which a traveler considers before choosing his/her destination then a handful of them come up as vital:
1.       Need: A wedding, a conference or a reunion decides the venue
2.       Budget: If on a shoestring budget you will choose a developing country and/or an off season destination
3.       Exchange rate: With the rupee not faring badly post liberalization you may be comfortable almost everywhere but surely more in Kuala Lumpur, Prague and Rio de Jenario than in Tokyo, Zurich and Sydney
4.       Time: How much time do you have in hand and how much of it would be spent on travelling alone? Places easy to navigate with good public transport systems are vital if your time is premium. However, there are other places where you may need to spend a little more time and understand the history and the civilization like Rajasthan or Machu Pichu or Serengeti. Make sure you don't end up rushing from place to place in an attempt to 'tick all the boxes'.
5.       Type of trip: Is it lazy days on the beach, a rowdy snow-boarding trip with mates, or a cultural experience in a developing country? Is this a pilgrimage or is it all work and no fun?
6.       Visas and vaccination: While neither of these should deter you from travelling anywhere, they may just play a role in helping you decide where to go, particularly if you are planning a trip in short notice.
7.       Cultural considerations: Travel demands a certain open-mindedness and desire to explore the unknown. For Indian travelers food habits are often a big constrain if they are strict vegetarians. Foreign languages, exotic cuisine and diverse customs will play as big or small a role in your travels as you see fit.
8.       Weather: Your week in Goa, if not well planned, can be accompanied by torrential rains, with any ideas of long days at the beach being washed away and replaced by even longer days in sheltered pubs. Weather forecasts will help you to choose your destination, your dates of travel and your outfits.
9.       Events and activities: A festival you've always wanted to go to, or some other event that would definitely be worth the trip may decide your destination. Thus Rio during the Carnival, Vrindavan and Barsana during Holi and New Orleans during Mardi Gras attract visitors by millions!
10.   Security: In today’s world this surely is a vital factor that can’t be ignored. Although it is impossible to foresee every eventuality, be on the lookout for any trends that indicate consistent danger. If traveling abroad, refer to government websites for recent unrests, crime rate and safety precautions. Certain places in Durban and Johannesburg are not the best for a quiet walk and the rapid transport system of a few cities are notorious for ingenious pick-pocketers.


So where are the travelers going? Which are the cities most often visited? Euromonitor International, a UK-based market research group, did a research recently and has revealed that 26 million foreigners flocked to the Asian metropolis Hong Kong, and this remains the most often visited city in the world for the last 8 years! The ranking, based on 2015 data, includes the number of travellers who visited the city throughout the year as well as data from international airport arrivals, accommodation stays and national statistics offices. According to their survey the top ten most visited cities are:
Hong Kong
1. Hong Kong (26.6 million international tourist arrivals)
2. Bangkok (18.7 million)
3. London (18.5 million)
4. Singapore (16.8 million)
5. Paris (15 million)
6. Macau (14.3 million)
7. Dubai (14. 2 million)
8. Istanbul (12.4 million)
9. New York City (12.3 million)
10. Kuala Lumpur (12.1 million)


Hong Kong has long attracted a wide range of visitors. From its plates of mouth-watering international cuisine and architectural heritage to its fusion of cultures, it is clear that there are many perks to this destination. Close to mainland China, it is also an easy getaway for Chinese travelers, whose numbers are always increasing and rated highly for its access to brands and tax-free products. Macau ranked 6th was another city that relied on the tourism of Chinese travellers and this goes to suggest that tourists from China alone can change the fate of any travel destination!

Relations of Hong Kong residents with those of mainland China keep changing and every time this gets strained the number of Chinese visitors decline. In 2014 their numbers were 6% higher and the Chinese decline was good news for some, as Bangkok climbed up the ranks to second place with a 10 per cent increase in traffic. About 18.7 million visitors chose to visit the capital, as its political situation stabilised. Five other Thailand cities also were placed in the top 100 with a surprising performance by the small northern city of Chiang Mai (51).

London
London's uncertain future cemented the top three rankings with 7 per cent growth (18.5 million). Analysts believe this was aided by the Rugby World Cup in late 2015. The UK economy, however, has raised questions about its future levels of inbound tourism with the play of "Article 50" and "Brexit" on everyone's minds.

Terrorist attacks played a significant role on Western Europe tourism. A minuscule decline was observed in Paris but this is expected to drop further in subsequent years.  The taste of a European vacation, however, is still proving strong with countries such as Spain, Greece, Portugal and Italy continuing to grow in numbers as they are still both affordable and safer.


Shikara on the Dal Lake in Kashmir
So, why is it that no Indian city makes to this coveted list? Despite a rich culture, ancient civilization, varied flora and fauna, mind boggling diversity, astonishing architecture and vibrant people, why is our tourism falling behind? While India received 6.84 million tourists in 2013, China could attract more that 132million and the tiny Singapore received 14 million. Today this gap has widened and World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) believes that in 2030 China will overtake the U.S as the largest domestic travel market of the world! So what are we doing wrong? We are not planning and by failing to plan we are planning to fail. Our successive governments have not given due importance to this industry and not invested in upgrading, promoting and protecting it. Frequently changing leadership at the centre, inadequate state centre cooperation in developing and marketing, bureaucratic lethargy and corruption, insufficient public-private participation, inadequate infrastructure, high accommodation tariffs, damaging international image (rape capital remember!), insufficient marketing, poor cleanliness and hygiene, notorious safety and security issues, poor presentation of the products and low level of creativity, are a few of the reasons which pull us back. In India we have a good product, the problem is with we Indians.